Seaweed DAO confirmed that the vulnerability exploit on April 18, 2026, targeted LayerZero's infrastructure, not Kelp's own system. The market size for another cryptocurrency hack event exceeding $100 million is expected to reach... by December 31.100.0%Yes.
KelpDAO's statement indicated that the data breach compromised LayerZero's decentralized validator network, resulting in losses of $290 million to $293 million. The attack is linked to the Lazarus Group from North Korea. KelpDAO prevented an additional $95 million in losses by promptly pausing contracts.
Given that this incident constitutes a hack exceeding $100 million, the market generally believes there is a 100% probability of at least one similar hack occurring before the end of the year. With 255 days remaining in 2026, the outcome is effectively already determined. The scale of this attack and its association with the Lazarus Group indicate that DeFi infrastructure, particularly systems relying on single-validator architectures such as LayerZero’s DVN, still has significant security vulnerabilities.
No new trades have occurred in the past 24 hours. The order book is thin, which is common in markets where the outcome is nearly certain. Any future changes to the odds would require significant order flow.
100% certainty means the market has priced in certainty. Reducing the probability requires two conditions: either no further hacks occur over an extended period, or the DeFi bridge infrastructure undergoes significant security restructuring. Closely monitor LayerZero’s statements and further investigations by ZachXBT or CertiK, which may clarify the scope of the DVN vulnerability and whether other protocols using the same infrastructure are also affected.
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