Kelp DAO suffered a $293 million hack, leading to $10 billion in withdrawals from the Aave platform. The contract on Polymarket regarding whether another hack causing losses exceeding $100 million will occur before the end of the year is currently...100%Yes.
Market response
This cryptocurrency hacking prediction market has 255 days left until year-end, and the market is nearly certain that another major default will occur. Bitcoin dropped to $60,000 in April While this hacking incident has made traders focused on contagion effects more cautious, no clear response has yet emerged.
Why is this important?
This hack is believed to have been carried out by private cybercriminals, directly raising questions about whether institutional investors will slow their entry into DeFi. If all participants claimed a 100% likelihood of being targeted, the attack prediction contract would already be settled—but the Kelp DAO vulnerability itself was the largest single DeFi attack of the year, resulting in losses of $293 million. Aave’s $10 billion in withdrawals indicates that existing DeFi participants are actively reassessing counterparty risk in real time.
What are you looking at?
The affected prediction markets have not yet disclosed any denominations, meaning even small trades could cause significant price fluctuations. If a new vulnerability emerges or a blockchain security firm releases important updates on new vulnerability patterns, the probability of a hack could fluctuate by up to 30%. Chainalysis and CertiK are the most likely companies to publish relevant research on preventive measures or newly discovered vulnerabilities.
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