Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin could reach $81,000 this month, with a 0% probability of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in April.
Bitcoin recently broke above $77,000, primarily driven by Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which alleviated concerns over oil supply disruptions. The de-escalation has reduced the immediate risk of energy interruptions and enhanced Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Traders now consider the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in April virtually nonexistent, a stark contrast to earlier fears of a drop below $62,000.
Market response
As geopolitical tensions ease, traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price movement for the remainder of April. This outlook aligns with overall market sentiment, which anticipates continued upward momentum for Bitcoin, particularly following $427 million in long liquidations. Bullish positions from Kalshi traders further reduce the likelihood of a significant downward move in Bitcoin.
## Why This Matters
Currently, market activity suggesting Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 in April is nearly nonexistent, indicating that virtually no one is betting on a price decline. Neither order book depth nor actual USDC trading volume has been disclosed, signaling extremely low market activity. This thin trading environment means even small orders could significantly impact the market, despite the current position bias being clearly bullish.
What to watch
For traders, buying at a low price of $60,000 for YES stock may seem attractive, but the actual probability is low. Events such as further extensions of the ceasefire agreement or major institutional actions are more likely to influence the stock’s price movement.
Stay closely updated on the latest developments regarding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, as well as any announcements from MicroStrategy or BlackRock. These factors could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price movement and impact your trading decisions on Kalshi.
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