BlockBeats report: On July 21, the 2026 FIFA World Cup became a watershed moment for the prediction market industry. According to statistics from律动 BlockBeats, Kalshi recorded a total platform trading volume of $54.338 billion during the World Cup, approximately 2.6 times the $20.988 billion traded on Polymarket; World Cup-related event trading volume reached $13.591 billion, about 31% higher than Polymarket’s $10.356 billion.
In terms of user growth, the Kalshi app has been downloaded 53.68 million times, significantly surpassing Polymarket’s 21.36 million downloads. The exposure from stadium advertising is considered a key driver behind Kalshi’s widening lead. While Polymarket’s website traffic leads at 57.44 million visits, it has not translated into equivalent advantages in trading volume or app downloads.
On other platforms, Predict.fun has a total trading volume of $1.092 billion, with $886 million related to the World Cup; Opinion has a total trading volume of $1.137 billion, with approximately $561 million related to the World Cup; Limitless has a total trading volume of $446 million, with approximately $220 million related to the World Cup.
From a data perspective, Kalshi and Polymarket have established a duopoly, collectively accounting for over 95% of the market share, with smaller platforms still orders of magnitude behind in absolute scale. The World Cup exhibits a "Super Bowl effect" in the prediction market—during the event, industry concentration increases further, with brand visibility and user acquisition efficiency becoming the key variables shaping the next phase of competition.