Kalshi Pre-IPO Stock Rises 21.7% in 30 Days Amid Rapid Market Expansion

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

The scale and trading volume of the prediction market are still growing rapidly. Leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are... IPO Pre-MarketIt has also attracted a certain level of market attention and liquidity. According to data from the PreStocks platform,Kalshi's pre-market stock price has risen by 21.7% over the past 30 days., far exceeding the recent one-month growth rates of major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

Before the IPO cake is served, the pre-IPO sector may become a fiercely contested area where more people can participate in advance. In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will analyze and predict whether the pre-market stock market is worth heavy investment, from perspectives such as industry tracks, platform data, and capital valuation.

In August last year, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, declare boldly that"Predicting that market trading volume will increase 100 times".

At that time, Polymarket and Kalshi, the "two giants" of prediction markets, had not yet secured over $1 billion in funding, and their valuations were far from reaching the $10 billion level. The total trading volume of prediction markets in July was still less than $2 billion, nearly halved compared to the historical peak of over $4 billion in October 2024. The claim of a 100-fold growth potential seemed absurd.

However, soon in October 2025, Polymarket officially announced that it had secured a $2 billion investment from ICE Group, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, causing its valuation to surge to $9 billion. It then sought a new round of financing at a valuation of $12 to $15 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi completed two funding rounds between October and December, with its latest round reaching $1 billion, pushing its valuation up to $11 billion. The round was led by Paradigm, with participation from Sequoia, a16z, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator.

Behind the enthusiasm of capital lies the rapid and vigorous development of the prediction market.

Based on our previous announcement"2025 Market Forecast Review: Total Transaction Volume Exceeds $500 Billion, Dual Giants Capture Over 97.5% Market Share"Article-related data:

1. September 2025, Kalshi vs. Polymarket The total transaction amount reached 144 million US dollars.;
2. October 2025,Predictive market trading volume reaches $870 million.Kalshi is leading, followed by Polymarket;
3. November 2025, Kalshi and PolymarketThe total transaction volume is close to 10 billion U.S. dollars.Among them, Kalshi's trading volume reached $580 million, representing a 32% increase from the previous period; Polymarket's trading volume reached $374 million, representing a 23.8% increase from the previous period.
4. December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott Expressing through a postIn November 2025, the predicted market transaction volume will exceed $13 billion, which is more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election.

In just a few months, the overall monthly trading volume in the prediction market has increased by about six times. Judging from this trend, a 100-fold growth is not out of reach.

After all, 100 times $200 million is only $20 billion. Compared to the predicted total transaction volume of over $50 billion in the forecasting market by 2025, this would require only a fourfold increase. Behind this rapid growth is the explosive rise of Kalshi, a U.S.-compliant forecasting market platform.

The emphasis on Kalshi's "compliant market status in the U.S." is because, given its various licenses and compliance preparations, the door to an IPO is easier for Kalshi to open. Additionally, as a pioneer in the prediction market platform established in 2018,(ODaily Planet Daily Note: The platform's official launch date was July 2021, slightly later than Polymarket)In recent years, Kalshi's business growth has also been remarkably impressive.

Kalshi 2025 Performance: $23.8 Billion in Annual Trading Volume, 97 Million Trades Executed

Previously, KalshiDataExpressing through a postIn 2025, Kalshi achieved record growth across all metrics.

• In terms of nominal transaction value, the total for the entire year reached $23.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,108%, or about 12.1 times. Among these, December set a monthly record of $6.38 billion, the fourth week of December set a weekly record of $1.7 billion, and on December 21, a daily record of $381.7 million was achieved.
• In terms of the number of transactions, the total for the entire year reached 97 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,680%, or approximately 17.8 times. Among these, the number of transactions in December was 27.67 million, the fourth week of December was 7.6 million, and on December 21st it was 1.5 million, all of which set new historical records.

After entering 2026, the growth of Kalshi's business data has been nothing short of terrifying.

Kalshi's Business Soars: Notional Trading Volume Expected to Surpass $9 Billion in January 2026

December 16, 2025, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour Expressing through a postWith the launch of the Combo (combo move) feature, the platform's daily trading volume reached a record high of $340 million.

January 12, 2026,The predicted market's single-day trading volume increased to approximately $702 million, setting a new historical record.;Among them, Kalshi accounts for approximately $465 million.,accounting for about two-thirds of the total,Meanwhile, Polymarket and Opinion together contributed approximately $100 million in trading volume.

January 26, KalshiData Expressing through a postAs of January 23, Kalshi's monthly notional trading volume was approximately $6.7 billion, with a daily average of about $293 million. If this pace is maintained, Kalshi's notional trading volume for January is expected to reach approximately $9.1 billion.

It is worth mentioning that,Last October,The overall trading volume in the market is projected to be $870 million, with Kalshi holding a market share of approximately 45%-55%.; and now, the monthly trading volume of just one platform, Kalshi, has already exceeded the total market capitalization at that time.This not only reflects the overall market's position in a favorable era with abundant opportunities, but also highlights the alarming speed of Kalshi's business growth.

According to data from the KalshiData website, as of January 29, Kalshi's cumulative historical trading volume has exceeded $34.05 billion, with an average daily trading volume surpassing $20.48 million. Moreover, examining the K-line chart of its notional trading volume, it has shown almost exponential growth since September 2025.

Finally, as the largest prediction market platform in the current market, although the specific timing and number of shares for Kalshi's IPO have not been finalized, considering its previous fundraising news and public statements, an IPO is all but certain. At present, there is considerable divergence between traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency market regarding the pre-market pricing of its stock:

The pre-market in traditional financial markets is pricing Kalshi's stock relatively low—

• on the Nasdaq Private Market,Kalshi Single-Stock Pricingaround 307 US dollars;
• On Hiive,Kalshi Single-Stock PricingAbout 357 U.S. dollars.

The pre-market for the cryptocurrency market prices Kalshi's stock relatively high—

• On PreStocksKalshi's implied market capitalization is approximately $14 billion, with a per-share price of about $407;
• On JarsyThe Kalshi market is valued at $1.1 billion, with a separate pricing of $450.

In the next article, Odaily Planet Daily will conduct a detailed analysis of the price ranges worth buying in the Kalshi pre-market for stocks, and break down investment opportunities in prediction market stocks from the perspective of pre-market trading.