BlockBeats news: On July 5, driven by the 2026 World Cup event, the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi saw its June trading volume rise to approximately $9.4 billion, a nearly 77% increase from about $5.3 billion in May, setting a new all-time high. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to about $4.3 billion.
Data shows that the World Cup has become a major catalyst for growth in prediction market trading. With this World Cup expanding for the first time to 48 teams, the increased number of matches and knockout scenarios have driven higher trading activity in single-event contracts. Notably, the round-of-16 match between Canada and Morocco generated trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.
However, the rapid growth in trading volume has further intensified regulatory debates. Multiple U.S. states continue to argue that sports event contracts should fall under gambling regulations rather than being regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as derivatives. Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has recently warned that certain event contracts may already fall within the scope of existing binary options regulations.
Analysis suggests that the World Cup demonstrated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether prediction contracts for sporting events should ultimately be regulated as financial derivatives or gambling remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.