ChainCatcher report, according to CoinDesk, K33 Research stated in a report that this Bitcoin bear market is different, with unusually pessimistic traders limiting downside space. Bitcoin traders have remained consistently defensive, reducing the risk of leverage-driven crashes. Research Director Vetle Lunde noted that the current slow consolidation has not replicated the rapid reversals seen after bear market rallies in previous cycles; instead, derivatives data points to extreme pessimism. The 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin has been negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing its historical longest streak, while the annualized basis for CME Bitcoin futures has dropped below 2.5%, indicating an extremely cautious sentiment. However, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives remains elevated, and further price weakness could trigger volatility. K33 maintains its baseline view that Bitcoin’s decline to $60,000 in February may represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle.
K33: This Bitcoin Bear Market Differs as Extreme Pessimism Limits Downside
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Summary
Bitcoin analysis from K33 Research indicates this Bitcoin bear market is distinct, with extreme pessimism limiting further downside. Traders remain cautious, reducing the likelihood of a leveraged crash. The 30-day average Bitcoin funding rate has been negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing a record. The CME Bitcoin futures annualized basis has fallen below 2.5%, signaling deep caution. Elevated open interest in Bitcoin derivatives could trigger heightened volatility if prices decline further. K33 suggests the $60,000 drop in February may represent the largest drawdown of this cycle.
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