- NFT trading volume has dropped to its lowest point in years, eliminating artificial inflation.
- Tony of JRNY cryptocurrency noted that the data is clearer and the fundamentals are stronger.
- Improvements in infrastructure may help enable a more sustainable recovery.
NFT trading volume has dropped to pre-2021 boom levels, which for most is undoubtedly a warning. JRNY Crypto’s Tony, looking at the same chart, sees something entirely different—he believes this is a potential turning point, not a collapse.
Sometimes, the ugliest charts turn out to be the most interesting, though it’s not obvious at first glance.
Arguing for the "true" buttocks
According to the latest data, the monthly trading volume of Ethereum NFTs hovers around $720 million, far below the peak of $3.5 billion in 2022. At first glance, this appears to be a significant decline—and it is—but Tony’s argument isn’t about how high trading volumes were in the past.
What matters now is what volume actually represents—genuine trading activity, not inflated numbers.
When fake volume disappears
In the previous cycle, the incentive mechanisms introduced by platforms like blur encouraged fake trading, inflating trading volumes but distorting the market. Traders did not always buy out of confidence in the assets, but rather to chase profits.
These incentives have now disappeared, leaving only a cleaner environment. The number of market transactions has decreased, but the trades are more honest—uncomfortable as it may be, this is necessary for any sustainability.
Quiet improvements beneath the surface
While attention has shifted, the underlying infrastructure has continued to improve. Royalties for creators have become more enforceable at the contract level, gas fees have dropped significantly, and layer-2 networks have made transactions far more convenient than they were just a few years ago.
Meanwhile, NFT events are increasingly associated with gambling, indicating that engagement can still occur even in a calmer market, as long as genuine use cases exist.
Smaller market size, but stronger capabilities
The market today is vastly different from the market in 2021. It is smaller, with less hype and more pragmatism—this may not sound exciting, but it is a healthier foundation compared to the speculative frenzy.
Excess parts have been removed, leaving only those who are actively building or genuinely interested in this space.
Another setting
Tony's "precise" prediction is not focused on short-term rallies, but rather on timing structural shifts. Volume hitting rock bottom, combined with improved infrastructure and reduced market distortions, has created a situation markedly different from previous peaks.
It cannot guarantee recovery—nothing can—but it shifts the focus of the discussion. And sometimes, with cryptocurrency, everything begins here.