Brent crude is at $109 per barrel. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis and supply disruptions push prices higher, the $150 per barrel scenario for oil is coming into focus.
Brent crude oil prices approached their highest levels in years, reaching around $109 as the holiday week began, influenced by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. As uncertainty grows in global markets, risks to energy supply are strengthening upward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical tensions are affecting markets
President of the United States Donald Trump's announcement that military objectives would be completed shortly, but that harsher actions against Iran remain on the agenda, heightened market tensions.
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with the lack of a clear timeline for when the conflicts will end, is heightening concerns about global oil supplies. In this context, the United Kingdom is continuing its efforts to find a solution by hosting a virtual meeting involving 35 countries aimed at ensuring safe passage through the strait.
Arz Disruptions and the Hormuz Strait Crisis
The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, is directly threatening global energy supplies. Attacks on Russia’s port infrastructure, pipelines, and refineries have reportedly resulted in a loss of approximately one million barrels per day in the country’s daily oil export capacity—equivalent to about one-fifth of its total capacity.
The OPEC+ group is preparing to meet over the weekend to evaluate a production increase. However, a strong production increase that would ease the market is not expected until the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. This situation is intensifying the impact of supply constraints on prices.
$150 Scenario for Gas Prices
According to a recent analysis report published by JPMorgan, if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist until mid-May, oil prices could rise to the $120–130 range, and in a more adverse scenario, could exceed $150.
The report predicts that the crisis, after causing a temporary supply shortage, can be resolved through negotiations, and prices may remain above $100 in the second quarter of 2026.
Risks are increasing for the global economy
Analysts emphasize that the duration and intensity of the rise in oil prices will be decisive for the global economic outlook. Prolonged high prices could exert pressure on demand and increase the risk of stagnation in the global economy. According to current expectations, oil prices are only anticipated to decline in the second half of 2026, alongside the normalization of supply and the replenishment of inventories.
JPMorgan's Critical Oil Warning: Hormuz Crisis Pushes Prices to Peaks first appeared on Bitcoin News, Altcoin and Crypto News.