JPMorgan stated that the Bitcoin mining network has shown a significantly stronger response to price volatility this year, as an increasing number of miners are operating near break-even points. As Bitcoin remains below estimated production costs, adjustments in hash rate and mining difficulty could become even more pronounced.
Difficulty is more sensitive to price
The row stated that over the past six months, the beta of Bitcoin mining difficulty relative to BTC price movements has risen to 0.62, indicating that network hash rate is responding more quickly to market changes.
JPMorgan noted that the mining economy remains weak in 2026, with Bitcoin's price falling below production costs for five consecutive months. The bank currently estimates production costs at approximately $78,000, while Bitcoin's price was around $64,700 at the time of the report.
Approximately 20% of miners are no longer profitable.
The report cites CoinShares' Q1 mining data, stating that approximately 20% of miners are currently unprofitable. Profit pressures have also driven miners to sell more of their Bitcoin reserves.
- Listed mining companies sold over 32,000 BTC in total during the first quarter.
- This volume has already exceeded the total sales for the entire year of 2025.
- When prices fall below cost, high-cost miners are more likely to shut down.
JPMorgan stated that when Bitcoin falls below production costs, higher-cost miners typically exit first, leading to a decline in the network's hash rate, followed by a reduction in mining difficulty. The bank noted that in the second week of June, Bitcoin's mining difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second time this year such a drop has occurred.
Mining companies are accelerating their shift toward AI businesses.
The line expects that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below production costs, the high sensitivity of hash rate and mining difficulty will persist. For mining companies, this means revenue fluctuations will more frequently impact equipment utilization rates and balance sheets.
Amid pressure on mining profitability, an increasing number of mining companies are shifting toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing businesses to diversify their revenue streams. J.P. Morgan notes that such托管 contracts typically generate more stable, longer-term revenue with higher margins than the more volatile Bitcoin mining business.