Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. JPMorgan: S&P 500 expected to surpass 9,000 points within the next year; AI supercycle may be even stronger than anticipated
J.P. Morgan analysts stated in their latest report that they expect the S&P 500 to surpass 9,000 points within the next year, representing a 22% increase from current levels. Kriti Gupta and other global investment strategists at J.P. Morgan noted in the report that, although concerns about U.S. inflation and a potential war with Iran remain prevalent in the market, the overall upward trend could continue if the scale of the AI supercycle exceeds prior market expectations. J.P. Morgan also highlighted that if productivity gains from the AI revolution boost corporate employee output, corporate earnings could still grow by more than 10% without triggering inflation—providing a key catalyst for further gains in U.S. equities.
2. Pepperstone: The U.S.-Iran agreement aims to lower oil prices; cooling inflation expectations may boost risk assets.
Brent crude oil futures have dropped below $100 per barrel, influenced by hopes of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Chris Weston, strategist at Pepperstone, said that if Brent crude prices approach $90, risk assets could regain momentum as short-term inflation expectations ease modestly and implied rate hike bets for 2027 slightly decline. Weston noted that this week’s U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will test inflation expectations, with forecasts indicating a year-over-year increase. Overall PCE inflation is expected at 3.8%—nearly double the Federal Reserve’s target. The decline in oil prices may limit the dollar’s reaction to the upcoming data. “Dollar positions have become quite stretched, and falling energy prices leading to lower inflation expectations could prompt some unwinding of long dollar positions,” Weston said.
3. OCBC Bank: Easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran boost risk assets, but lack of clarity on nuclear details may limit forex upside momentum.
OCBC stated in a report that markets may be reluctant to aggressively cut geopolitical risk premiums, especially amid lower liquidity during the holiday period. The bank noted that risk indicators are likely to open the week stronger, supported by hopes of de-escalation in U.S.-Iran relations. However, due to lingering uncertainty surrounding details of Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment, foreign exchange markets may be hesitant to push prices higher. High-beta currencies such as the Australian dollar and Korean won could rise, while the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Philippine peso may lag. Nevertheless, oil prices remain a key variable, as confirmation of an agreement combined with weaker oil prices could put pressure on yields and the U.S. dollar.
4. Bank of America optimistic forecast: AI will drive annual growth of approximately 1 percentage point over the next decade
Bank of America stated in a report that artificial intelligence has already improved productivity in very specific, well-defined tasks, but these gains have not yet scaled broadly across the economy. Currently, economists say overall productivity growth in the economy is only about 0.1% per year, indicating a relatively small overall impact compared to the widespread excitement surrounding the technology. However, in the long term, they believe AI’s impact on overall productivity could be up to ten times greater than what is currently observed. “Under an optimistic scenario, AI-driven productivity gains could boost annual growth by approximately one percentage point over the next decade, raising global growth rates to 4.5%.”
Domestic
CITIC Futures: Coal mine accident leads to stricter safety oversight, strengthening short-term upward momentum for coking coal and coke.
Jinshi Futures, in collaboration with CITIC Futures, comments: Currently, the fundamentals of coking coal and metallurgical coal are healthier compared to 2024, with upstream coal mine inventories lower than in 2024. Even without any coal mine accidents, downstream blast furnace demand is sufficient to absorb the supply of both coking coal and metallurgical coal; market sentiment is not pessimistic, and the low inventory levels upstream are likely to persist, providing support to coal prices. Therefore, we believe the supply gap caused by this major coal mine accident may reverse the previous downward trend in futures prices, strengthening the short-term upward momentum for both coking coal and metallurgical coal. If subsequent coal mine safety regulations are further expanded to Shanxi or nationwide, prices for both commodities could continue rising to reach new highs this year; however, it is important to monitor whether coking coal imports from Mongolia could significantly increase due to tighter domestic coal supply.
2. Huatai Securities: Optimistic about exchange chips entering a second phase of growth driven by AI starting in 2026
Huatai Securities' research report states that switching chips, as core components for data center interconnects, are used to handle data switching and packet forwarding, accounting for over 30% of switch costs. Huatai Securities anticipates a second growth phase for switching chips starting in 2026, driven by AI: 1. Clusters exceeding 10,000 GPUs require more stable and reliable network systems, driving Scale-out switches toward higher capacity and speed, which is expected to boost both volume and pricing of Scale-out switching chips; 2. The hyper-node architecture may serve as a breakthrough for domestic computing to catch up with overseas capabilities, amplifying Scale-up effects within clusters, with switching chip ratios typically higher than in Scale-out systems, potentially generating substantial future demand for switching chips. Huatai Securities estimates that the domestic switching chip market could reach RMB 24.2 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 96% from 2026 to 2028, and recommends monitoring leading international players and domestic companies with advanced self-developed technologies.
3. CITIC Securities: Strait navigation approaches; awaiting demand recovery
China Securities believes that the U.S. and Iran are drawing closer to reaching an agreement, and the market has largely priced this scenario as the baseline. The most significant change after the agreement is a simultaneous replenishment of supply and demand, along with a rapid recovery in economic activity. Current weak economic indicators reflect postponed demand prior to the U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as market participants are waiting rather than rushing to rebuild inventories or resume operations—a non-normal disturbance. Once the agreement is reached and the strait resumes normal operations, supply and demand will return to equilibrium, leading to a noticeable improvement in economic activity after June. Changes in macroeconomic variables will also alter the underlying assumptions for market strategies, gradually leading to a more balanced style. Large-scale selling is nearing its end; as macro conditions stabilize, allocation-oriented capital will gradually return, driving rebounds in undervalued sectors. Continue proactively reducing volatility and restructure the barbell strategy around AI and energy chemicals.
4. CITIC Securities: Chinese canning companies are expected to gain greater opportunities for global market expansion and gradually build a global production capacity layout.
CITIC Securities' research report points out that metal packaging holds a significant position in the packaging industry due to its advantages such as durability, pressure resistance, sealing, corrosion resistance, and recyclability. After industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions by leading players and the relocation of excess capacity overseas, the two-piece can sector has transitioned from an intensely competitive red ocean to a healthier state characterized by coordinated leadership among major players and improved supply-demand dynamics. In December 2025, the industry successfully initiated the first price increase for two-piece cans, potentially opening a pathway for improved profitability among can manufacturers. Additionally, overseas market expansion is still in its early stages; as Ball Corporation strategically refocuses on core regions, Chinese can manufacturers are poised to gain greater opportunities for global market expansion and gradually build a global production footprint. Overall, two investment themes emerge: first, improved domestic industry structure enhances pricing power of leading companies, driving profit recovery; second, accelerated overseas expansion boosts incremental profits through higher-margin international operations.
5. CITIC Securities: Downstream demand has stabilized and improved; we remain bullish on the synergy between the beef cattle and raw milk cycles.
A research report from CITIC Securities indicates that raw milk supply will slightly increase in 2026, while demand for liquid milk is expected to stabilize and improve, and demand for solid dairy products remains highly robust. Since April, fluid milk prices have remained elevated, and the supply-demand imbalance in raw milk continues to ease, with leading dairy companies steadily advancing their deep-processing initiatives. Since May, the price for culling dairy cows has risen above RMB 22 per kg, prompting leading livestock companies to expand their beef cattle operations. Since 2024, beef cattle inventories in China have declined significantly; under the backdrop of domestic culling and import quota constraints, beef cattle supply is expected to face downward pressure in 2026. Referencing the previous beef cattle cycle’s inventory reduction and price recovery pattern, the report concludes that live cattle prices still have room to rise. The report continues to favor the convergence of the beef and dairy cattle cycles, recommending leading livestock breeding companies with comprehensive industrial chain integration and high self-sufficiency in raw milk, as well as dairy processors benefiting from these trends.
6. CITIC Construction Investment: Embrace the MLCC Super Cycle and Focus on Investment Opportunities Across the Supply Chain
China Construction Bank Research Report states that MLCCs, as core passive components in electronic circuits, have demand, pricing, and inventory fluctuations deeply tied to the cycles of the semiconductor and electronics industries, consistently following the logic of “demand-driven, inventory-transmitted, supply-demand amplified,” with the two sectors closely linked and moving in sync. With the launch of a super cycle in electronics and semiconductors, the MLCC industry is entering a moment of explosive growth. The development of autonomous driving and AI has significantly increased the demand for both quantity and performance of passive components, particularly driving a surge in demand for inductors, capacitors, and resistors that are high-power, high-frequency, highly reliable, and miniaturized, propelling the industry into a new period of prosperity. Although high-end MLCCs are primarily concentrated among companies such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Murata, and TAIYO YUDEN, since materials determine device performance, China’s leading enterprises in materials are now gaining global competitiveness and narrowing the gap with Japanese and Korean firms.
7. CITIC Construction Investment: Positive on the AI industry chain and computing power network development
China Construction Bank Research Report points out that NVIDIA reported FY27Q1 earnings exceeding market expectations, with customer demand gradually shifting from standalone GPU procurement to comprehensive solutions encompassing switching and interconnect technologies. The VeraRubin rack product is expected to enter bulk delivery starting in the third quarter, with value added in CPU, interconnect, and switching segments rising accordingly; future AI infrastructure upgrades will focus on end-to-end optimization. The computing network is positioned as a national-level infrastructure, with annual investment scale projected to exceed one trillion yuan, covering multiple stages including computing construction, management, scheduling, and operations. As the primary driver of computing network development, telecom operators have launched token packages and are exploring C-end token-based operational models. Google I/O 2026 revealed that Google’s AI industry strategy has entered a fully integrated phase—“computing infrastructure + models + application entry points + edge devices”—with TPU8t/8i validating sustained long-term demand for training and inference computing power, while Gemini 3.5 Flash and Gemini Omni enhance model speed, cost efficiency, and multimodal capabilities.
8. Guangfa Securities: The bond market may have entered the final stage of a bull market
Guangfa Securities' research report states that, under the backdrop of low interest rates, abundant liquidity, and debt restructuring, bond spreads have significantly narrowed, leaving limited upside potential. Amid a slow recovery in fundamentals and a return of monetary policy to a reasonable and balanced stance, the bond market may have entered the final stage of a bull market. However, in the short term, we remain cautiously optimistic: the combination of fiscal deficit, weak economic data, ample liquidity, seasonal factors, an intact medium-term bullish trend, and the absence of reversal signals suggests there is still room for long positions. Target yields: 1.70% for 10-year government bonds and 2.15% for 30-year government bonds.
9. Galaxy Securities: The sodium-ion battery industry is expected to reach an inflection point by 2026
According to a research report from Galaxy Securities, led by industry pioneers, the sodium-ion battery sector is expected to reach an inflection point in 2026. At CATL’s “Ultimate Horizon” Super Tech Day in 2026, the company announced that its new sodium-ion batteries are scheduled to enter large-scale mass production in the fourth quarter of 2026. With industry leaders achieving commercial-scale production of sodium-ion batteries, a clear driving effect will be generated across the entire industrial chain. Galaxy Securities believes that power, energy storage, and two-wheel vehicles will be the key areas for significant growth: In the power sector, sodium-ion batteries address the challenges of electrification in cold regions, and with cost advantages becoming realized, substantial adoption in mid- and low-end power applications is anticipated. In energy storage, sodium-ion batteries are poised for large-scale deployment due to their three key advantages—wide operating temperature range, high safety, and high discharge power. In the two-wheel vehicle segment, combining low cost with high performance, sodium-ion batteries are expected to largely replace lead-acid batteries. Galaxy Securities forecasts sodium-ion battery shipments to reach 25 GWh, 92 GWh, and 221 GWh in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 188%, 263%, and 140%, with output expected to exceed 600 GWh by 2030.