According to PolyBeats, over the past day, a prominent account on the prediction market Polymarket, which has correctly predicted 9 out of 10 events in Iran-related markets with an 88% win rate, placed a $17,700 bet on “Iran’s regime will not collapse before June 30,” entering at an average price of 61.8¢, now trading at 58.5¢.
Trump stated in a media interview that the airstrike eliminated a large number of Iranian leadership figures, saying, "Many of those we thought might succeed have already died," and noted that dozens of senior Iranian officials have been killed in the operation, creating new uncertainty regarding Iran’s future leadership.
After Khamenei was killed in the airstrike, Iran's affairs are temporarily managed by an interim leadership mechanism composed of the president, head of the judiciary, and others; however, the international community generally believes that although Iran's regime has been struck, its institutional and security systems remain capable of sustaining operations, and the long-established religious-military-political structure continues to function.
Account: 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Iranian expert account bets $17,700 that the Iranian regime will not collapse by June 30.
KuCoinFlashShare
Summary
On-chain data shows an Iranian expert account with 88% accuracy on nine Iran-related predictions has placed a $17,700 bet that the Iranian regime will not collapse by June 30. The position was opened at 61.8¢, with the current price at 58.5¢. On-chain analysis reveals increasing activity in markets tracking regime stability. Trump claimed in an interview that airstrikes killed numerous top Iranian leaders, adding uncertainty. Following the strike that killed Khamenei, a temporary leadership composed of the president and judiciary has assumed control, but the regime is still viewed as capable of maintaining operations.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.