Iran Accuses the U.S. of Violating the Ceasefire Agreement in Hormozgan Province

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

Female Mandarin versionDownload MP3

1. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the United States openly violated the ceasefire agreement in Hormozgan Province. Iran will respond and will not hesitate to defend its security.

2. As of now, domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity has dropped below 80,000 tons per day, equivalent to approximately 44 GW of monthly module demand.

3. After a six-month suspension, Uzbekistan fully resumed gold exports in April.

4. U.S. media corrects previous report, stating the U.S. Navy has not reinstated the "Freedom Project"

5. According to Xinhua News, Israeli media reported on the 26th that Israeli forces have crossed the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire line and launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

1. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, speaking about the U.S. airstrikes against Iran on Monday, stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. “The straits must remain open, they will remain open no matter what, so they must remain open,” Rubio told reporters. He also said that negotiations with Iran regarding a potential agreement might “take a few days” to finalize.

2. According to Xinhua News, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported on the 26th that claims by some foreign media that Iran and the United States have reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding are “completely fabricated and baseless.”

3. On Tuesday, Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister Hertanto said the country is planning to introduce an additional economic stimulus package this year, with a total value of approximately IDR 7.8 trillion (about USD 438.82 million).

4. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the United States openly violated the ceasefire agreement in Hormozgan Province. Iran will respond and will not hesitate to defend its security. The United States’ violation of the ceasefire agreement while engaging in negotiations once again reveals its malicious intent.

5. The U.S. Wall Street Journal previously reported that a Greek-flagged supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil was escorted through the waterway off the coast of Oman by the U.S. Navy. This escort operation was described as a new phase of the "Freedom Plan." Subsequently, the outlet corrected its report, stating that a spokesperson for the U.S. Central Command clarified that the United States has not resumed the "Freedom Plan," and reports of its restart were inaccurate.

6. According to Xinhua News, Israeli media reported on the 26th that Israeli forces have crossed the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire line and launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures falling 1.45% to $4,507.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures declining 1.44% to $77.27 per ounce.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 3.62% at $93.57 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 3.06% to $96.28 per barrel.

3. Most base metals in London rose, with LME aluminum up 0.69% at $3,674.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.61% at $54,505.00 per ton, LME nickel up 0.51% at $19,010.00 per ton, LME lead up 0.20% at $2,015.50 per ton, LME copper down 0.42% at $13,610.50 per ton, and LME zinc down 0.42% at $3,528.00 per ton.

4. U.S. soybeans fell 0.92%, U.S. corn fell 1.13%, U.S. soybean oil rose 0.42%, U.S. soybean meal fell 1.02%, and U.S. wheat fell 1.74%.

1. In mid-May 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises totaled 18.77 million tons, an increase of 1.89 million tons from the previous period, up 11.2%. Key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.96 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.096 million tons, a 0.7% decrease day-over-day; 18.79 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.879 million tons, a 0.9% decrease day-over-day; and 20.07 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 2.007 million tons, a 3.3% increase day-over-day.

2. On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary-General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that Guangzhou will continue to improve the two systems of housing market and housing security, continuously optimize real estate regulation measures, and that relevant departments including the Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Bureau, the Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, and the Municipal Housing Provident Fund Center have already issued detailed implementation guidelines on land supply, special subsidies for "selling old and buying new," and "commercial-to-public loan conversion."

3. According to Mysteel satellite data, between May 18 and May 24, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil amounted to 13.943 million metric tons, an increase of 146,000 metric tons week-over-week, continuing the upward trend in inventory. Current inventory levels are slightly above the average since the second quarter.

4. According to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the third week of May 2026—comprising 15 working days—Brazil exported 22.1095 million tons of iron ore, compared to 34.7727 million tons in May of last year. The daily average shipment volume was 1.474 million tons per day, a 10.98% decrease from 1.6558 million tons per day in May of last year.

5. According to Mysteel, on May 26, major steel mills in Shandong raised their coke procurement prices by CNY 50/ton for wet-quenched coke and CNY 55/ton for dry-quenched coke; steel mills in Hebei also increased their coke procurement prices by CNY 50/55/ton, effective from 0:00 on the 26th.

1. According to SMM, domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity has been continuously declining recently, and leading glass manufacturers are expected to further negotiate capacity reductions next week. As of now, domestic photovoltaic glass capacity has dropped below 80,000 tons per day, equivalent to approximately 44 GW of monthly module demand.

2. According to The Malay Mail, citing Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, Malaysia has secured fuel supplies until August, despite disruptions to energy transport routes, thanks to continued passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

1. According to foreign media, data released by the Central Bank of Peru shows that in March 2026, Peru exported 249,300 tons of copper, 1,400 tons of tin, 547,100 ounces of gold, 400,000 ounces of refined silver, 158,500 tons of lead, and 110,000 tons of zinc.

2. According to SMM, a zinc smelter in the southwest region has delayed its scheduled maintenance and restart from early June to mid-to-late June due to equipment materials not yet arriving; current production has been reduced to approximately one-third. Meanwhile, a zinc smelter in the south China region has recently ignited and begun commissioning its second-phase expansion of 50,000 tons of new capacity; if commissioning proceeds smoothly, production is expected to gradually ramp up starting in July.

3. Tianci Materials: Initiate preparatory work for a 160,000-ton-per-year high-density lithium iron phosphate project, with an estimated investment not exceeding RMB 2.1 billion.

4. According to foreign media, informed traders revealed that Malaysia has imposed a 10% import tariff on certain gold bars, disrupting the country’s gold trade. Traders and dealers said that some imported gold shipments have been subject to a 10% tariff since at least early May.

5. According to Beijing Daily, Guinea will restrict bauxite exports; in response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Mao Ning said: “I am not yet familiar with the situation you mentioned; you may also inquire with China’s relevant authorities. I would like to emphasize that, as a principle, all countries have a responsibility to maintain the stability of supply chains.”

6. As one of the world’s largest gold producers, Uzbekistan fully resumed gold exports in April after a six-month pause.

7. International Aluminium Institute (IAI): Global alumina production in April 2026 was 11.921 million tons, compared to 12.238 million tons in the same period last year and a revised figure of 12.647 million tons for the previous month. Alumina production in China for April is estimated at 7.370 million tons, compared to a revised figure of 7.530 million tons for the previous month.

Bullish sentiment rapidly released, with both coking coal futures opening high and closing low.

CITIC Futures noted that, as the Shanxi coal mine accident gained momentum over the weekend, market expectations of tightened metallurgical coal supply ignited bullish sentiment in the coking coal and coke markets, resulting in widespread limit-up openings for both contracts on Monday. However, following the rapid release of short-term sentiment, updated surveys on coal production at the source, and continued weakness in downstream steel prices, the futures prices opened high but closed lower. Nevertheless, nearby contracts showed significantly stronger performance than deferred ones. The primary market debate currently centers on whether future coal production policies will prioritize “supply assurance” or “safety supervision.” After the concentrated release of short-term sentiment, current production surveys have led the market to lean more toward “supply assurance,” as participants question whether this accident will lead to widespread, long-term safety inspections. Consequently, the futures market lost momentum after Monday’s limit-up. However, given that this is a particularly major accident—the deadliest coal mine incident in the past 15 years—the market also maintains expectations of prolonged tightening in safety supervision. Data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange shows that the trading volume of the main coking coal contract surged rapidly from over 300,000 lots on Monday to over 2 million lots today, indicating ongoing intense speculation between the two opposing expectations. Future developments must be closely monitored regarding coal production policies. In summary, regardless of whether this accident evolves into broad-based safety inspections, the short-term supply gap will undoubtedly raise the price floor for coking coal and coke. If safety inspections remain tightened, upside potential for prices could expand significantly; if shutdown mines resume production quickly, upward price momentum may weaken.

2. Guinea's mining restrictions are about to take effect, boosting alumina prices.

Xinhu Futures stated that news of a policy by Guinea to control bauxite export volumes, set to take effect in June, triggered a strong market reaction, with significant outflows of short positions in futures markets driving alumina futures prices sharply higher. Although rumors of Guinea controlling bauxite exports have circulated for some time, implementation had been delayed. Recently, Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology, Boune Sylla, told Bloomberg: “Supply must not exceed demand; we aim to regulate shipment volumes to bring prices back to a reasonable range.” He added that this new policy, which had been on the agenda for months, will officially take effect in June. He also noted that mining investors welcome the prospect of higher prices. Specific measures remain to be confirmed. Currently, bauxite supply is ample, with domestic alumina producers holding high levels of imported ore inventories, averaging around 90 days of stock. Thus, even if Guinea’s export control policy is implemented, the likelihood of a bauxite supply shortage remains low, and any price recovery in bauxite—and its subsequent transmission to alumina production costs—will take time. Meanwhile, alumina supply is severely excessive, with inventories continuing to rise. Although some alumina plants are operating at a loss and running at low utilization rates, further production cuts are unlikely due to existing long-term contracts and new capacity coming online gradually. While downstream aluminum smelting capacity has also increased somewhat, the resulting rise in alumina consumption is far outweighed by the supply increase. In the short term, alumina oversupply is intensifying, putting continued downward pressure on spot prices. Although futures prices have swung sharply due to news-driven sentiment, there is insufficient fundamental support for sustained upward momentum—caution is advised against chasing higher prices.

1. Weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending May 9, released on May 27 at 20:15 US time;

2. May 28, 20:30 UTC: U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for last week;

3. EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report on May 29 at 00:00.