ChainThink reports that on March 18, at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market currently fully expects no change in rates and is now focusing on statements from Fed Chair Powell during the monetary policy press conference. Institutional outlooks are as follows:
1. Berenberg: The scope for further rate cuts is now very limited, and the Fed is expected to implement its final 25-basis-point cut of this cycle at the June meeting.
2. Goldman Sachs: Expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in September and December, with potential for earlier cuts if the labor market weakens sooner or more severely than expected.
3. Deutsche Bank: Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged this week, as sharply rising geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary risks triggered by surging oil prices are eroding room for rate cuts.
4. Farm Credit: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady before year-end; some members may advocate ignoring short-term inflation spikes driven by energy, but most members favor a more cautious approach.
5. Rabobank: Under Powell’s leadership, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance; if Walsh takes over, the Fed may become more aggressive and potentially push for rate cuts to counter economic downturn.
6. TS Lombard: Concerns about the labor market are reemerging; if the energy shock subsides within weeks, combined with the base-effect of tariff-related inflation in the second half of the year and a rapid slowdown in rental inflation, two rate cuts this year remain possible. (GoldTen)