Hyperliquid Launches Prediction Market on Mainnet with HIP-4 Upgrade

• HIP-4 adds outcome-based contracts with fixed payouts, eliminating leverage and liquidation risk in prediction markets.
• First market tracks Bitcoin price direction, combining event-based trading with existing perpetual and spot positions.
• Early activity shows moderate volume as Hyperliquid plans phased expansion and competes with established platforms.

Hyperliquid launched its first prediction market on mainnet through the HIP-4 upgrade, marking a shift beyond perpetual trading. The rollout went live Saturday as a limited-feature release, according to the platform’s statement. Founder Jeff Yan confirmed the update on Discord, outlining phased deployment and testing goals for the new outcome-based markets.

Notably, HIP-4 enables fully collateralized contracts that settle within fixed ranges. These contracts function as binary outcomes, paying either zero or one at expiration. According to Hyperliquid, the design avoids leverage and eliminates liquidation risk.

Moreover, the first live market tracks Bitcoin’s daily price direction. It settles based on whether Bitcoin trades above a set level at a specific time. Early listings included a contract asking if Bitcoin would exceed 78,213 by May 3 at 8:00 AM.

This structure allows users to trade event outcomes alongside existing perpetual and spot positions. As a result, traders can manage both directional exposure and event-based bets within one system.

However, early data shows moderate but active participation. Initial figures indicated about $59,500 in daily volume and roughly $84,600 in open interest. The “Yes” side traded near a 63% implied probability.

At the same time, Hyperliquid reported higher relative activity compared to Polymarket on a similar Bitcoin market. The platform recorded 89,253 units traded, while Polymarket logged 79,500 shares under its dollar-per-share model.

Crypto commentator Jxck noted that Polymarket still leads in visibility and reputation. However, he added that integrating prediction markets with perpetual trading could attract hedging activity.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid plans a phased rollout of additional markets and features. Jeff Yan stated that curated markets will come first, followed by permissionless listings. Early focus remains on short-term crypto price events.

This launch also places Hyperliquid in direct competition with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Notably, both platforms have explored adding perpetual trading features, according to recent reports.

The update follows earlier testing of HIP-4 on testnet in February. It also builds on Hyperliquid’s existing derivatives platform, which already supports deep liquidity and high-speed execution.