Original Title: "Hyperliquid is Entering the Prediction Market Space, Targeting Polymarket's Core Territory?"
Original Author: Seed.eth, Bitpush News
Hyperliquid, which holds the top position in the crypto derivatives market, is now trying to extend its reach into another trillion-dollar market in the midst of an explosive growth phase: prediction markets.
Today, Hyperliquid officially announced the testing of a new feature called "Outcomes." This news immediately ignited enthusiasm in the secondary market, with its native token HYPE recording a rise of over 10% within 24 hours and breaking through the $30 price level.
At a time when Polymarket dominates on-chain traffic and Kalshi partners with Coinbase to capitalize on the compliant market, Hyperliquid's entry is by no means a mere "bandwagon" move. Instead, it leverages the absolute advantages of its native underlying performance to redefine the rules of the game.
What is Outcomes?
According to the official HIP-4 proposal, Outcomes (Outcome Contracts) is not merely a gambling interface. Its design centers around three key core logics:
1. Full collateralization, liquidation risk
Unlike leveraged perpetual contracts, Outcomes follows the principle of "spend according to your means." It uses full collateralization and settles within a fixed range. This means that regardless of market fluctuations, as long as the settlement date has not arrived, traders' positions will not face liquidation, fundamentally eliminating the risk of margin calls.
2. Non-linear settlement, larger strategy space
Outcomes has introduced a nonlinear settlement mechanism. For traders, this is equivalent to gaining a flexibility similar to options, which you can use to build more sophisticated hedging tools. You are no longer limited to a simple binary game of "yes" or "no," thereby opening up greater space for risk management and strategy portfolios.
3. Native Integration, Connecting Liquidity
Outcomes will be deeply integrated into Hyperliquid's underlying chain, HyperCore, and will be priced in the native stablecoin USDH. More importantly, it will share the cross-margin system with the platform's existing spot and perpetual contracts. This means users can seamlessly implement multiple trading strategies within the same margin account, truly achieving liquidity interoperability and reuse.
Fragmented Competition: Who Will Be the Final Winner in Predicting the Market?
The current prediction market is at a "1995 browser war" moment, forming four distinct business paths:
· Polymarket sells "opinions," and it serves as a barometer for social trends;
· Kalshi sells "compliance"; it attracts U.S.-based capital looking to avoid legal risks;
· Coinbase has taken a "dimension-reducing" approach, turning prediction markets into mass consumer products through built-in app features;
· Hyperliquid's logic is the most hardcore: it doesn't ask you to click Yes or No on a webpage. Instead, it wants you to hedge macro risks by simultaneously shorting BTC and buying an "Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data beats expectations" Outcomes contract.
Currently, the community is most concerned about the synergistic effects of HIP-3 (Permissionless Token Listings) and HIP-4 (Outcomes).
Under this architecture, Hyperliquid's evolution path is clear: first, the official will deploy "canonical markets" based on objective data sources, such as interest rates and macroeconomic indicators; then, permissionless deployment will be enabled.
Behind this strategy lies the legendary team advantage of Hyperliquid. It is hard to imagine that such a massive entity, generating over $1.1 billion in annualized revenue and trading volume comparable to top-tier centralized exchanges (CEXs), is actually supported by a core team of only about 11 people. This "special forces" team, composed of Harvard and MIT academic elites and top talents from premier quantitative hedge funds, has achieved astonishing efficiency, with each member contributing over $100 million in annualized revenue. Precisely because the team is extremely lean and the decision-making process is short, Hyperliquid is able to iterate rapidly.
A senior DeFi observer said, "Coinbase's entry validates the business model, but it remains centralized. Hyperliquid's Outcomes is challenging a proposition: the ultimate future of prediction markets lies not in social media, but in financialization. When prediction outcomes become as smooth as buying and selling stocks, and can share margin with futures, the true potential of on-chain finance will be unlocked."
Is HYPE Severely Undervalued?
As the crypto options market continues to mature, the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market's open interest (OI) has surged to $1 billion, while the platform's 24-hour trading volume has skyrocketed to $4.8 billion, setting a new record high.
Regarding this move, Blockworks researcher Shaunda Devens believes this action further supports Hyperliquid's upward valuation potential.
Devens pointed out that even if HIP-4 consumed 100% of Polymarket's trading volume, it would contribute only about 5% to Hyperliquid's revenue.
At first glance, this data may seem surprising, but its underlying logic lies in the fact that the perpetual contract market (including long-tail assets brought by HIP-3) is extremely large in scale. Devens believes that Hyperliquid's current valuation of approximately $7 billion is clearly undervalued compared to Polymarket's latest valuation of $10 billion (based on 2025 funding data). The launch of Outcomes mainly serves to complete a crucial component of its comprehensive financial product matrix.
Although market sentiment is high, it should be noted that Outcomes is still in the testnet phase, and the exact timeline for its mainnet launch has not yet been announced. However, with the rapid growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, mainstream service providers such as Kalshi or Crypto.com could theoretically utilize the HIP-4 protocol to migrate and operate on the Hyperliquid chain in the future.
In summary, the prediction market is entering its best era yet. In the United States, thanks to improved regulatory transparency, the collaboration between Kalshi and Coinbase has extended prediction markets to all 50 states. Similarly strong growth momentum is also evident in the European Union and Asia. For Hyperliquid, Outcomes is by no means just a "bet"—it is an essential piece of the puzzle in building a "blockchain-based Wall Street."
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