ChainCatcher report, according to Jinshi, a report from Huatai Securities states that in May 2026, U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 172,000, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 85,000, with cumulative revisions upward of 93,000 for the previous two months. The unemployment rate and labor force participation rate in May remained at 4.3% and 61.8%, respectively, both in line with expectations; the month-over-month growth rate of hourly wages rose by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%, while the year-over-year growth rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4%, also meeting expectations. Market pricing for a Fed rate hike this year has significantly intensified. Huatai Securities maintains its view that the Fed will hold rates steady in the second half of this year but may need to raise rates next year.
Huatai Securities: May Nonfarm Payrolls Could Exceed Expectations, Strengthening Case for Fed Rate Hike
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Summary
Huatai Securities noted that the May 2026 nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, surpassing the Bloomberg forecast of 85,000. Unemployment remained steady at 4.3%, with a labor force participation rate of 61.8%. Hourly wage growth rose 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% month-over-month, but annual growth declined to 3.4%. The data has elevated market expectations for a Fed rate hike. Huatai anticipates no rate changes in the second half of 2026 but sees potential for hikes in 2027. The debate between securities and commodities remains active amid tightening monetary policy, as CFT regulations continue to shape market dynamics.
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