Max Kettner, HSBC’s chief multi-asset strategist, is putting a timestamp on the end of US market dominance. His assessment: investors have until roughly August before the American exceptionalism trade runs out of runway.
The prescription? Start leaning into Europe. In Kettner’s words, investors may want to be “perhaps really leaning a bit more into that European story.”
HSBC’s strategic pivot from US equities
This isn’t a sudden change of heart for Kettner or HSBC. Back in February, the bank halved its US equity overweight, redirecting capital toward cyclical sectors and emerging markets. That move came amid signals of a broader global recovery that didn’t require the US to do all the heavy lifting.
Kettner has framed the US economy as experiencing a K-shaped recovery, where different sectors and equity classes are producing wildly divergent outcomes.
During a Bloomberg segment on May 20, Kettner recommended leaning into cyclicals, a category that tends to benefit when economic growth is accelerating globally rather than concentrated in one geography.
HSBC isn’t alone in this thinking. Investec’s analysis has similarly suggested that a multi-year phase of US equity outperformance may be approaching its natural conclusion.
What this means for crypto investors
Kettner hasn’t mentioned crypto in his recent public commentary. HSBC itself has historically maintained a cautious stance toward digital assets. But the macro currents he’s describing matter enormously for anyone holding Bitcoin or other risk assets.
A weakening US exceptionalism narrative typically correlates with a softer dollar. And a softer dollar has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds for Bitcoin and crypto broadly.
HSBC’s participation in digital-asset infrastructure discussions at the Global Investment Summit in April suggests the bank is at least aware of this dynamic, even if it’s not ready to go full send on crypto allocations.
The K-shaped recovery framework Kettner describes is also relevant for crypto market structure. Bitcoin continues to attract institutional flows as a macro asset, while much of the altcoin market remains tethered to speculative retail demand.