ChainThink reports that on March 9, senior strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a market crash for the remainder of this year from 20% to 35%, citing escalating tensions in the Iran conflict impacting global markets. These adjustments reflect growing market concerns that prolonged Middle East conflicts, combined with inflationary pressures, will constrain household spending, erode corporate profit margins, and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge funds are increasing their bearish bets on the U.S. stock market at a pace unseen in nearly five years. In the week ending March 6, hedge funds increased their short positions in stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 8.3%. Goldman Sachs noted that, with tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of easing, short-term investors are ramping up their bearish bets on the U.S. stock market, anticipating further market pain. (Jinshi)