Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, to announce export controls in June

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Peak. Futures Morning Peak — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. As of the latest survey results as of May 25 morning: the number of shut-down coking coal mines in Shanxi has risen to 109, with a total capacity of 122 million tons, affecting daily raw coal production by 319,500 tons.

2. Major steel mills in Tangshan and some in Xingtai plan to increase prices for wet-quenched coke by RMB 50/ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55/ton, effective at 00:00 on May 26, 2026.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice from the Ministry of Finance on the cotton target price policy for 2026–2028, setting the target price for cotton in Xinjiang at 18,600 yuan per ton.

4. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1-20 is estimated to have decreased by 2.19%.

5. Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, will announce export control measures in June.

1. According to CCTV News, on the 25th local time, it was learned that the Iranian delegation led by Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, Kalibaf, will return to Tehran tonight after concluding their meetings in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The delegation’s agenda in Qatar has now been completed.

2. Recently, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group announced plans to collaborate on launching a futures market for AI computing power this year. As demand for computing power grows exponentially, computing power is set to accelerate its assetization and financialization, with the potential to evolve from a single product into an ecosystem.

3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of May 25, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) stood at 1,863.74 points, up 9.0% compared to the previous period.

4. According to Xinhua News, the Iranian Students' News Agency, citing senior Iranian diplomats on the 25th, reported that neither side has made any commitments on nuclear issues or highly enriched uranium in the preliminary agreement draft between Iran and the United States.

5. According to Al Jazeera on the 25th, Iranian officials stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in phases.

6. Trump said negotiations with Iran are progressing well and called on multiple Middle Eastern countries to join the Abraham Accords.

7. According to Fox News, citing U.S. Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins, U.S. forces conducted a defensive strike on Monday in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines. While maintaining restraint during the ongoing ceasefire, U.S. Central Command continues to defend U.S. military personnel.

8. U.S. President Trump: Iran’s enriched uranium (nuclear dust) will be immediately transferred to the United States for domestic destruction, or better yet, destroyed in place in collaboration with Iran, or at another acceptable location, with the International Atomic Energy Agency or its equivalent body witnessing the process and event.

9. According to Nikkei Asia on Monday, citing a Middle Eastern diplomatic source, the United States and Iran are discussing a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz approximately 30 days after reaching an agreement to end hostilities. Once the agreement is reached, Iran will clear mines from the strait within the 30-day period. Afterward, vessels from all countries will be able to navigate freely and safely, and Iran will cease charging transit fees.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 1.11% to $4,573.6 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.89% to $78.4 per ounce.

2. International oil prices closed lower across the board; the U.S. crude futures contract fell 6.52% to $90.30 per barrel. The Brent crude futures contract fell 6.56% to $93.64 per barrel.

3. As of the 23:00 close, the majority of domestic futures main contracts closed lower: benzene, styrene (EB), and fuel oil fell over 2%; asphalt and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined nearly 2%; caustic soda, polypropylene, double-coated paper, methanol, propylene, para-xylene, glass, and liquefied gas dropped more than 1%. On the upside, coking coal rose over 9%, and coke increased over 5%.

1. From May 18 to May 24, 2026, the total iron ore shipment volume from Mysteel globally was 38.024 million tons, an increase of 5.969 million tons环比. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 31.327 million tons, an increase of 5.596 million tons环比.

2. According to Mysteel, from May 18 to May 24, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 47 ports amounted to 26.046 million tons, a decrease of 2.252 million tons环比; the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 45 ports amounted to 24.219 million tons, a decrease of 2.774 million tons环比; and the total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports amounted to 12.782 million tons, a decrease of 385,000 tons环比.

3. Major steel mills in Tangshan and some in Xingtai plan to increase prices for wet-quenched coke by RMB 50/ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55/ton, effective at midnight on May 26, 2026.

4. According to Mysteel, the safety situation at coal mines in Shanxi continued to escalate this week. As of the latest survey results on the morning of May 25, the number of shut-down coking coal mines in Shanxi has risen to 109, with a total capacity of 122 million tons, affecting daily raw coal production by 319,500 tons.

1. On Monday, India's state-owned fuel retailers raised prices for diesel and gasoline. Dealers reported an increase of ₹2.71 per liter for diesel and ₹2.61 per liter for gasoline. This is the fourth price hike since May in India, aimed at offsetting part of the losses caused by rising crude oil costs due to the Iran conflict.

2. According to U.S. media on the 24th, a liquefied natural gas tanker bound for India has passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first such vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz for India since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of May 25, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers stood at 1.701 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, or a 4.22% decline.

1. According to Guinea shipment data tracked by Aladdin (ALD), shipments in the first three weeks of May totaled approximately 12 million metric tons; extrapolating the declining trend, total May shipments may reach around 16-17 million metric tons. Expected shipments from 19 Guinean mining companies in June are projected at 16 million wet metric tons, a decrease of about 5 million metric tons from the March peak of 21 million metric tons.

2. Mysteel conducted a comprehensive survey of China's primary aluminum producers. In April 2026, China's primary aluminum output finalized at 3.7393 million metric tons, up 3.15% year-over-year but down 2.48% month-over-month; the aluminum plant operating rate stood at 97.82%, up 1.29% year-over-year and up 0.40% month-over-month; the capacity utilization rate was 98.48%, up 1.79% year-over-year and up 0.41% month-over-month; daily average output was 124,600 metric tons, an increase of 3,800 metric tons year-over-year and 400 metric tons month-over-month.

3. According to SMM data, on May 25, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel rose by $29 per ton of nickel metal, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt increased by $20 per ton of cobalt metal. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade matte nickel declined by $37 per ton of nickel metal.

4. Hunan Gold announced that its subsidiary, Xinlong Mining, will resume operations on May 26, 2026.

5. As the world’s largest bauxite producer, Guinea plans to announce reform measures next month to control exports of this ore used in aluminum production, as it seeks to boost market prices.

6. Codelco stated that the earthquake in the Antofagasta Region has impacted operations, with some mining processes under review; certain activities have been suspended due to low visibility in open-pit mines or localized power outages. Previously, according to the National Seismic Center of the University of Chile, a 6.9-magnitude earthquake occurred on the 25th in the Antofagasta Region of northern Chile. The Tsunami Warning Division of the Chilean Navy’s Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service said the earthquake will not trigger a tsunami.

1. Emergency incident in Shanxi will continue to strain coal and coke supply and demand.

Guangfa Futures research report indicates that this mining accident will trigger a sentiment-driven surge in the futures market, followed by high-level consolidation and structural differentiation among coal types, with the core issue being Shanxi’s supply contraction, high Mongolian coal inventories, and resilient demand. In the futures market, the accident has rapidly shattered previous expectations of loose supply; however, after a short-term speculative rally, it may face hedging pressure, primarily constrained by high Mongolian coal inventories. Current coke producer and steel mill inventories can support short-term production, but the actual impact of supply contraction on end-users will take time to materialize. Today’s finished product performance was weaker than expected, so the market will exhibit a short-term bullish surge driven by sentiment, with weakening price momentum. Regarding spreads, earlier futures prices were weaker in the nearby months due to inventory pressure, while longer-dated contracts had already priced in supply contraction expectations, resulting in a backwardated structure (stronger far-month, weaker near-month). The accident’s impact is stronger on the near-month contract and weaker on the far-month, causing the 9-1 spread to temporarily shift into a contango structure. In the spot market, low-sulfur primary coking coal leads the rally, with significant structural differentiation across coal types. Qinyuan is a core production area in Shanxi for low-sulfur primary coking coal; the current shutdown directly impacts the supply of this scarce coal type, causing spot prices for low-sulfur primary coking coal and lean coking coal to firm up and rise slightly, while conventional high-sulfur blending coal and thermal coal are minimally affected, resulting in pronounced market divergence. Key short-term indicators to monitor: Qinyuan mine resumption progress, scope of safety inspections in Shanxi, weekly coke producer inventory drawdown rate, and Mongolian coal import clearance volumes.

2. U.S.-Iran tensions ease, fuel oil falls over 7% on Monday

According to a research report from China Everbright Futures, over the weekend, the latest news indicated that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. According to senior officials familiar with the negotiations, the agreement would include the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment to negotiate the dilution or transfer of Iran’s stored highly enriched uranium. Amid easing geopolitical tensions, the energy and chemical complex opened lower today, with fuel oil leading the declines, posting a maximum intraday drop of over 7%. In the short term, caution is warranted against further price declines driven by a continued retreat in geopolitical risk premiums.

1. TBC on May 26: Malaysia's SPPOMA palm oil production estimate for May 1-25;

2. Export inspection report from May 21 to 23:00 U.S. time on May 26.