Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said that recent funding and holding pressures on Strategy are amplifying volatility in the Bitcoin market. The trigger was the company’s disclosure on June 1 of selling 32 Bitcoin. Although the quantity was small, this action shifted certain market expectations.
Sale of 32 coins draws attention
Strategy has long been regarded as one of Bitcoin’s most steadfast corporate buyers, so even a small reduction in holdings can be amplified by the market. Grayscale believes that what truly triggers volatility is not the scale of the sale, but the fact that this transaction causes investors to question whether Strategy can maintain its previous level of buying momentum.
According to reports, Strategy currently holds over 818,000 bitcoins, with a position value nearing $55 billion based on recent prices. Market estimates suggest an average purchase price of approximately $75,500 to $75,700 per bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin is near $62,000 or lower, the company’s unrealized paper loss is estimated at $11 to $12 billion.
STRC financing model under pressure
Market attention has also shifted to Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock instrument, STRC. The product targets a trading price of approximately $100 per share and currently offers a dividend yield of 11.5%. Grayscale notes that as dividend obligations rise, Strategy’s ability to efficiently raise capital through preferred stock issuance and reinvest those funds into Bitcoin may become more constrained than before.
Some critics argue that if the preferred stock continues to expand, the annual dividend burden could exceed $1 billion, increasing financial pressure and potentially undermining market confidence in its "continuous buying" model. Supporters, however, contend that Strategy can still access capital markets for financing, and Bitcoin volatility is inherently part of its long-term strategy.
Losses among peer companies have widened.
The report also noted that the pressure is not limited to Strategy alone; several companies with digital assets as a core treasury allocation have recently incurred significant paper losses.
- The strategy's unrealized loss on Bitcoin is approximately $11.07 billion.
- Bitmine's unrealized loss on Ethereum is approximately $9.58 billion.
- Metaplanet's unrealized loss on Bitcoin is approximately $1.38 billion.
Grayscale believes that, in the long term, the market structure could become more stable if Bitcoin is no longer highly concentrated on the balance sheets of highly leveraged firms but instead becomes more widely distributed across a broader range of corporate holdings. However, in the short term, a more solid bottom for Bitcoin still requires new buying pressure to enter the market.
In addition to corporate holding pressure, Bitcoin has recently been affected by weak ETF fund flows, declining market liquidity, and some capital shifting toward AI stocks. Grayscale expects Bitcoin to仍有 room for recovery in the coming months, but its short-term performance may lag behind certain crypto sectors that benefit more directly from regulatory clarity.