Grayscale Research called Aave’s AAVE token undervalued, estimating a fair value of $80 to $100 against a spot price of $77, based on discounted cash flow analysis.
The asset manager’s base-case projection for AAVE is $179.11, supported by five key factors.
Grayscale Maps Bear, Base, and Bull AAVE Price Targets
The report highlighted Aave’s categorization as a permissionless on-chain bank that generates recurring revenue. Grayscale estimates the protocol will generate roughly $60 million in 2026.
“Aave’s revenue has increasingly been anchored by stablecoin activity rather than volatile crypto assets, providing a more durable earnings base as the protocol scales,” the report read.
Applying fintech multiples of 20x to 25x yields a fair value market cap of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. That range implies an AAVE price of $80 to $100.
Grayscale also modeled three one-year outcomes. Its bear case is $90.91, the base case is $179.11, and the bull case is $270.57.
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The firm’s base case rests on five assumptions. It expects exponential growth in stablecoin and major Horizon partnerships. It also assumes previously withdrawn deposits return.
The Aave App captures mainstream users in this scenario. Finally, institutions build on the V4 architecture, deepening liquidity and driving the protocol toward its $179.11 target.
Where AAVE Stands Against Grayscale’s Targets
AAVE currently trades around $77.23, with a market cap of about $1.17 billion. That figure sits just below Grayscale’s lower fair-value estimate. At that price, the base case implies a gain of roughly 132%.
The firm also flagged Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple with strong relative value. Meanwhile, the price targets arrive after April’s Kelp DAO rsETH exploit hit the protocol hard.
The breach drove a steep drop in Aave’s total deposits. Even so, Grayscale said Aave’s transparent handling of the crisis reinforced its institutional credibility.
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