Google has stunned the cryptocurrency community by publishing groundbreaking research that drastically reduces the timeline and hardware requirements for quantum computers to break the encryption securing Bitcoin, Ethereum and other major blockchain networks.
Researchers from Google Quantum AI have revealed a massive leap forward in quantum decryption algorithms.
The findings show that the cryptographic foundation of most cryptocurrencies is far more vulnerable than previously believed.
20-fold reduction in required hardware
For years, the crypto community has known that quantum computers would eventually pose a threat to the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP-256), which protects digital asset wallets. The general consensus was that such an attack would require millions of physical qubits.
However, Google has successfully compiled quantum circuits capable of breaking ECDLP-256. Their algorithms require only 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits.
Google estimates these circuits can be executed on a superconducting quantum computer using fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in just a few minutes.
"Mempool attacks"
Given that Bitcoin's average block time is roughly 10 minutes, a quantum computer capable of cracking a private key in under nine minutes opens the door to devastating "mempool attacks."
A bad actor monitors the network for broadcast transactions. "We thought quantum attacks could take months, meaning transactions were safe and only 1/3 of BTC were at risk," Project Eleven explained. "Now a quantum computer could crack private keys in 9 mins... Mempool attacks just became real."
The researcher also noted that, based on Google's data, quantum computers will soon be capable of breaking into the top 1,000 Ethereum wallets in less than nine days.
Accelerated "Q-Day"
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, who joined the Google Quantum AI paper as a late co-author, weighed in on the developments, describing the dual breakthroughs as a "monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography."
Drake warned the crypto industry that the expected timeline for "Q-day" (the moment a quantum computer successfully cracks blockchain encryption) has been dramatically reduced.
"From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored," Drake cautioned. "There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign."
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