BlockBeats news: On January 9, Goldman Sachs stated that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December 2025, to be released late Friday, is unlikely to significantly alter market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, unless the data comes as a major surprise. This is because current market pricing is already firmly anchored to a path of easing beginning mid-year.
In a research report to its clients, Goldman Sachs expects the nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 70,000, in line with the general market expectation. Although informal market "private forecasts" suggest a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the current macroeconomic narrative.
The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.
Goldman Sachs stated that a "quite dramatic" upward or downward surprise in labor data would be needed to significantly move this timing forward or backward.
From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs describes a nonfarm payrolls figure between 70,000 and 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for equities, consistent with sustained economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or threatening the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.
By contrast, a nonfarm payrolls figure below 50,000 will be interpreted as falling short of the estimated level needed to maintain stable employment growth, potentially causing investor unease by raising concerns about a sharp slowdown in growth.
On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it could prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, pushing the expected timing of the rate cut back to June. (Jinshi)