BlockBeats news, on June 16, Goldman Sachs stated that Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries may exceed market expectations, as a rebound in European demand and improved sales in China offset weakness in the U.S. market.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Mark Delaney, raised their forecast for Tesla's second-quarter 2026 deliveries from 405,000 to 420,000 units in a report released on June 15, surpassing the market consensus of 400,000 units aggregated by Visible Alpha. The bank noted that the latest regional sales and registration data indicate Tesla's quarterly delivery performance is precisely in line with prior expectations.
The report highlights Europe as the main highlight of the quarter. As of May, Tesla’s registrations in Europe increased by approximately 85% to 90% year-over-year, with early June data also indicating a strong start. However, Goldman Sachs noted that Europe’s growth was partly aided by a low base from the same period last year. In contrast, the U.S. market remains weak, with deliveries for the quarter through May declining by a mid-double-digit percentage year-over-year. In China, data from the China Passenger Car Association points to a high single-digit year-over-year growth, while other Asia-Pacific markets such as South Korea and Australia also showed solid performance.
Goldman Sachs also raised its full-year delivery forecast for Tesla, increasing its 2026 delivery estimate from 1.72 million to 1.73 million vehicles, while maintaining its forecasts of 1.88 million and 1.96 million vehicles for 2027 and 2028, respectively. The bank also raised its 2026 earnings per share estimate from $1.30 to $1.35.
Despite improved short-term delivery prospects, Goldman Sachs maintains its "Neutral" rating on Tesla, with a 12-month price target of $375. Based on Tesla's stock price of $411.15 at the time of the report, this target implies approximately an 8.8% downside potential.