ME News reports that on May 11 (UTC+8), as U.S. economic data remained robust, corporate earnings stayed strong, and the AI capital expenditure boom continued, concerns about a U.S. economic recession are rapidly subsiding. Predictive market data shows the probability of a U.S. recession this year has fallen to 19%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has also lowered its forecast for a U.S. recession to 25% and pushed back its expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts. The market generally believes the U.S. economy is more likely to achieve a soft landing—slowing without entering a recession. Driven by this sentiment, the S&P 500 has continued to hit new all-time highs, Wall Street’s risk appetite has further strengthened, and AI, technology, and growth sectors remain the primary focus of capital inflows. (Source: BlockBeats)
Goldman Sachs Lowers U.S. Recession Probability to 25%; Market Bets on 'Soft Landing'
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Summary
Goldman Sachs now estimates the risk of a U.S. recession at 25%, down from earlier forecasts. On-chain data indicates the market is pricing in a 19% chance of a downturn this year. Strong economic data, stable earnings, and rising AI spending are alleviating concerns. The S&P 500 has reached new highs as investors shift focus toward altcoins to watch and technology-driven growth sectors. The Fed’s timeline for rate cuts has also been delayed.
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