BlockBeats report, June 12: Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel, primarily due to ongoing global crude oil supply expansion and weak demand.
Goldman Sachs noted that oil-producing countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE have significantly increased production, while China's accelerated energy transition is reshaping the global crude oil demand growth curve.
Despite lowering long-term expectations, the bank maintains a relatively bullish outlook for medium-term oil prices, expecting the average Brent crude price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be around $90 per barrel.
Regarding supply shocks, Goldman Sachs believes that recent disruptions in transportation around the Strait of Hormuz have been less severe than expected. Although the global supply gap widened temporarily, it was partially offset by weak demand and structural oversupply. The bank expects oil exports from Gulf countries to gradually return to normal by the end of August, revising upward its previous estimate for the timing of recovery.
However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that geopolitical risks could still trigger extreme volatility. Under an adverse scenario, if export disruptions persist, Brent crude oil prices could surpass $110 by the end of 2026.
In an extreme scenario, such as the Strait of Hormuz being blocked year-round, Goldman Sachs believes oil prices could rise as high as $140 per barrel. Under a downside scenario, if supply recovers rapidly and demand weakens further, oil prices could fall back to around $70 and decline further to $60 by 2027.