Hu 火星 Finance reports that Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecasts for the next two Fed rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027. The report notes that energy cost pass-through may keep core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation near 3% throughout 2026, above the Fed’s 2% target. Previously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also projected that core PCE would not return to 2% until early 2027. Goldman Sachs U.S. economists believe that cooling monthly data and a weakening labor market must precede any rate cuts. At its April 29 meeting, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, with four dissenting votes—the most since 1992. According to CME FedWatch data, the market assigns a 93.4% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the June 17 meeting. Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management previously stated that hawkish sentiment may dominate the June FOMC meeting. For the crypto market, the delayed rate cuts tighten liquidity flowing into risk assets, while a stronger dollar tends to suppress crypto asset valuations.
Goldman Sachs Delays Forecast for Fed Rate Cut to December 2026 Amid Inflation Concerns
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Summary
Goldman Sachs now expects the next two Fed rate cuts to occur only in December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflation data. Core PCE is projected to remain near 3% in 2026, above the 2% target. The IMF also anticipates a return to 2% by 2027. Goldman’s economists emphasize that rate cuts will require clearer signs of cooling inflation and a weaker labor market. At the April 29 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenters. CME FedWatch indicates a 93.4% probability of no change in June. Goldman’s Lindsay Rosner expects hawks to dominate the June FOMC. This delay could weigh on altcoins while supporting the dollar.
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