Goldman Sachs: Crypto Market Nearing Cycle Bottom After 46% Stock Drop

Key Insights

• Goldman Sachs analysis shows crypto prices nearing historical bottoms after 46% decline in related equity stocks.
• Valuations for Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase appear more attractive to investors following recent market drawdown.
• Report warns trading volumes may decline further, potentially reducing 2026 revenue by 2% and profits 4%.

The crypto market has faced heavy declines since late 2025. Prices of Bitcoin and related stocks dropped sharply, leaving investors cautious.

Goldman Sachs believes the worst may be over. In a March 26, 2026 note, analyst James Yaro said the sector’s drawdown now matches historical averages.

He explained that prices look more stable, though trading volumes remain weak. This view suggests the market may be near a bottom, offering investors a possible entry point.

Bitcoin fell from above $75,000 in late 2025. Since then, it has traded between $60,000 and $75,000. This range shows stabilization instead of further collapse. Crypto equities followed the same path. They dropped about 46% from October highs but have not fallen much further.

Goldman Sachs noted that past cycles often saw deeper declines, sometimes 80 to 93 percent. The current drawdown is milder, which may mean selling pressure has eased. Yaro said this could mark a floor, though he stopped short of calling it a final bottom.

Institutional interest has cooled. ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum once drew strong demand but now show weaker flows. Even so, Goldman Sachs pointed out that valuations are more attractive. The firm believes disciplined investors may benefit if volumes recover in the months ahead.

Goldman Sachs identified three stocks as attractive buys. Robinhood (HOOD) is one. Its crypto trading business is expanding into derivatives, stablecoins, prime brokerage, and prediction markets. This diversification could help it grow as retail and advanced traders return.

Figure Technologies is another pick. It uses blockchain for home equity lines of credit. Goldman raised its price target to $42 from $39, suggesting about 35 percent upside. The company’s use of distributed ledger technology gives it a structural edge less tied to spot crypto prices.

Coinbase (COIN) also made the list. Goldman trimmed its target to $235 from $270 but still sees value. Coinbase’s trading, staking, and institutional services remain central to its case.

All three stocks trade at least 50% below their all‑time highs. Goldman Sachs believes this makes them appealing in a post‑drawdown environment.

Despite optimism on prices, Goldman Sachs warned about weak trading activity. Volumes could fall further before recovering. Low activity often leads to sharp swings in crypto prices. This can delay a clear uptrend. Historically, trough periods last about three months before volumes rebound.

If the slowdown continues, crypto companies may face smaller but noticeable hits. Goldman Sachs estimated about 2% lower revenue and 4% lower profits in 2026. The firm stressed that recovery depends more on participation than on price alone.

Market observers remain divided. Some say the 46% equity decline is mild compared to past cycles. Others argue that on‑chain volume or technical levels, such as Bitcoin’s 200‑week moving average, must confirm a bottom.

Goldman Sachs framed the current setup as one where patience may pay off. Investors should watch volume trends closely before expecting a strong rally.

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