According to Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider, the AI investment wave will continue to dominate the S&P 500's second-quarter earnings season, with S&P 500 companies expected to report year-over-year profit growth of approximately 22%.
Among them, NVIDIA and Micron may contribute approximately 40% of the overall profit growth, while AI infrastructure-related stocks account for nearly 60%. This indicates that, despite recent rotation and divergence among AI-related stocks, AI remains one of the key drivers of earnings growth in the U.S. stock market.
Over the past year, the S&P 500 rose nearly 20%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than further multiple expansion. However, market focus is now shifting toward AI return on investment.
Investors have largely accepted that companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta will continue to make significant capital expenditures; attention now shifts to whether these investments can translate into revenue, profit margins, and cash flow.