Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price is trading more like a high-beta risk asset versus gold while slipping under $90,000 levels.
- Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone noted the BTC-to-gold ratio fell to about 18.5 ounces per BTC, the lowest since 2021.
- Glassnode reported Bitcoin fell below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile, amid rising selling pressure from short-term holders.
The unprecedented Gold rally to $5,000 has impacted the global market. This pushed the Bitcoin price even lower. Rising geopolitical uncertainty drives the yellow metal’s dominance.
It leaves little room for BTC upside. In fact, BTC is trading more like a high-beta asset relative to Gold.
Gold Is Holding Back The Bitcoin Price Upside
Following the rejection at $97,000 recently, the Bitcoin price has once again slipped under $90,000. That showed weakness. On the other hand, yellow metal Gold has delivered a one-sided move with 90% gains on the yearly chart.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone noted subdued equity volatility. He highlighted gold’s strong outperformance. He said this combination may be nearing a turning point.
McGlone pointed to the ratio of gold to Bitcoin, noting that one Bitcoin was worth about 18.5 ounces of gold on Jan. 21. This is breaking underneath the key support of 20 ounces held since 2021.
McGlone also highlighted the S&P 500’s performance when measured in gold ounces. He said that the index has fallen under the 1.44 pivot, which is below the 2020 lows.
The Bloomberg analyst stated that Gold is currently capturing an outsized alpha over risk-on assets like equities and crypto. Speaking on the current Gold dominance over BTC, economist Peter Schiff wrote:
One good thing to watch is that even the commodities industry is moving towards gold tokenization. During the last year 2025, this typical investment product even outperformed the physical gold rally.
Bitcoin Price Shows Clear Signs of Weakness
Glassnode reported that the Bitcoin price has dropped below a key on-chain support level tied to the market’s cost basis. This shows that the downside risk is increasing unless BTC reclaims the threshold.
The analytics firm noted that Bitcoin has lost the 0.75 supply cost-basis and has failed to recover over it. As a result, spot BTC price is now trading below the cost basis of roughly 75% of the circulating supply.
Glassnode added further analysis. Bitcoin recently pushed above the short-term holder cost basis near $98,400. Investors met this move with sustained sell-side pressure.
The firm added that investors have increased their spending during the move, realizing larger losses and limiting upside momentum.
Despite the weak short-term outlook, market veterans like Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood are bullish on the long-term outlook. A recent report from Ark Invest noted that the Bitcoin price could surge 9x in the next five years, hitting the $1 million mark.
Can BTC Price Crash to $44,000?
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel said Bitcoin has broken a key higher-timeframe long-term support trendline. This has further raised concerns over the possibility of deeper correction.
The analyst warned that if the breakdown holds, Bitcoin could target $44,000. He urged traders to weigh in on the outlook. This highlights growing caution in the market.
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