Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Goldman Sachs: Lowers gold price target to $4,900, expects no rate cuts from the Fed this year
Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 due to reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven stated in a report: “We have revised our December gold price target down to $4,900 per ounce (from $5,400), implying that gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but by less than previously anticipated. Our structural view on gold remains constructive, but we are tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks.” The analysts noted that the downward revision stems from Goldman Sachs economists pushing back their expectations for U.S. rate cuts to June and December next year, from prior forecasts of December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projections for gold ETF inflows. They added that concerns regarding central bank independence may be limited given the “surprisingly hawkish” tone of the first Fed meeting under Waugh.
2. Goldman Sachs: Wash's hawkish stance will intensify volatility in the short end of the U.S. Treasury market
Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs Asset Management said that Powell’s “unambiguously hawkish” message caught markets off guard, as he clearly prioritized curbing inflation in the near term. Traders quickly increased bets that policymakers would raise rates sooner than previously expected. Data shows the market now assigns over an 80% probability to a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with pricing already reflecting expectations of more than one hike by October—just two days ago, markets still believed the earliest possible hike would be in December. Haigh said, “Volatility in the two-year Treasury segment will increase significantly. First, because markets are refocusing on inflation, causing the long end of the yield curve to stabilize and flatten. Second, the Fed’s comments on forward guidance suggest a reduction in such guidance and a greater reliance on data—changes that will largely translate into heightened two-year volatility.” The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reflects market expectations for Fed policy, surged sharply after the Fed’s decision and remained volatile on Thursday. The yield jumped 13 basis points on Wednesday—the largest increase since April 2025—and matched the largest single-day gain on a Fed policy day since 2008. On Thursday, the 30-year Treasury yield touched a two-month low.
3. Goldman Sachs expects the pace of central bank gold purchases to slightly slow, but still remain supportive of gold prices.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will continue purchasing gold at a rate of 50 tons per month in 2026, slowing to 40 tons per month in 2027. Even with this reduced monthly pace compared to previous peaks, the trend provides a durable structural floor for gold prices. An unprecedented proportion of central banks have expressed intent to increase their gold reserves, creating a demand backdrop that offers substantial downside protection for gold prices. Goldman Sachs’ forecast implies that, despite monthly fluctuations, central bank demand will remain one of the most persistent structural supports for gold prices over the next two years. Another survey by the World Gold Association, conducted between February and May among 76 central banks, supports this view. A record 45% of respondents indicated they expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months—the highest level in the survey’s history. Approximately 90% of respondents anticipate an increase in global central bank gold holdings during the same period, while the remainder expect stability. No respondents predicted a decline.
4. Citigroup: Expects oil prices to fall to $60–$65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027
Citigroup stated on Thursday that it expects oil prices to decline over the next six to 12 months, falling to $60–$65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal following a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending their conflict. The bank added that over time, the restoration and normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will “re-anchor oil prices to weaker fundamental fundamentals.” On Thursday, oil prices dropped to their lowest level since the outbreak of war on February 28, with analysts noting that oil exports from the strait—accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply—are expected to normalize over the coming months.
5. MUFG: Intervention can only curb speculative yen depreciation
Daisaku Ueno, strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, stated that the Japanese government can only curb speculative yen depreciation through foreign exchange intervention. “As long as the real policy interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan persists, the ‘magic’ of foreign exchange intervention will struggle to permanently suppress yen selling pressure. This pressure is structurally driven by investment decisions and actual demand stemming from the economic activities of Japanese corporations and individuals,” he noted. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is prepared to take appropriate actions in the foreign exchange market if necessary.
6. OCBC: The yen is unlikely to become an investment currency unless the Bank of Japan shifts to a more hawkish stance.
Foreign exchange strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong from OCBC stated in a report that the risk of intervention against the yen remains high, but intervention alone is unlikely to reverse the yen’s weakness. They believe that for the yen to transition from a funding currency to an investment currency, the Bank of Japan must adopt a more clearly hawkish stance. The foreign exchange interventions implemented by Japanese authorities in April have not yet fully taken effect, and the USD/JPY remains above 160. On Monday, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the Finance Ministry “will respond appropriately in the foreign exchange market as needed.”
Domestic
1. Huatai Securities: AI server power testing may present opportunities for domestic substitution
The construction of AIDC is accelerating the upgrade of power supply architectures, creating growth opportunities for test power supplies. The institution believes that as data center power supply architectures evolve from UPS to HVDC and SST, the scope of testing will expand from single PSUs to PowerShelf, BBU, and entire rack systems. Meanwhile, the increasing power ratings of cabinets are expected to drive simultaneous growth in both volume and price of test power supplies. We are optimistic that domestic manufacturers, leveraging their accumulated high-power technology and the opportunity for domestic substitution, will achieve rapid growth amid industry expansion and technological advancement.
2. Huatai Securities: Growth-led, but avoid chasing highs; focus on three investment themes
Huatai Securities released a strategy report on A-shares, stating that last week, the focus of the A-share market shifted upward, led by growth stocks, with the AI industry chain experiencing an extreme rally driven by policy catalysts; however, apparent overcrowding has reached high levels. The K-shaped recovery is expected to continue in the short term, with weaker domestic demand反而 creating room for expectations of enhanced policy support. The cyclical synergy in the AI industry remains strong, and the upward trend may not yet unravel, but market sentiment has not fully cooled, and the lack of hedging mechanisms is accumulating vulnerability. In terms of timing, it is recommended to moderately adjust positions and avoid chasing highs, while maintaining sufficient safety buffers. For portfolio allocation, focus on three themes: First, AI hardware and price-increase chains with high earnings visibility—consider optical modules, storage/CCL, MLCC, MPO, etc. Second, sectors showing bidirectional improvements in supply and demand from a financial reporting perspective—consider consumer electronics, minor metals, and home renovation materials. Third, continue to monitor sectors with stable shareholder returns and defensive characteristics to hedge against volatility in tech-related trading.
3. CITIC Securities: Expects the global wafer manufacturing equipment market to grow by 26% in 2026
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, semiconductor equipment demand is expected to remain strong, supported by robust capital expenditure guidance and expansion plans from major downstream customers. We project the global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market size to reach $147.8 billion and $199.5 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 26% and 35%, with an increasing share attributable to downstream memory segments. Considering gradual capacity ramp-up and new product iterations, semiconductor equipment manufacturers may gain enhanced pricing power. In light of downstream market demand, competitive dynamics, equipment spending intensity, company performance, and valuation metrics, we recommend monitoring relevant investment opportunities.
4. CITIC Construction Investment: China's nano-zirconia is poised for rapid development opportunities
According to a research report from CITIC Construction Investment, demand for high-end zirconia in emerging fields is expected to grow steadily, driven by accelerated development in the solid-state battery industry, rapid growth in the SOFC sector, and the renewed resurgence of electronic-grade bioceramics and nuclear energy. As yttria, the most critical stabilizer for zirconia, faces supply constraints due to rare earth limitations, global leaders such as Japan’s TOSOH and DAIICHI KIGENSO CHEMICAL have significantly reduced production, leading to an anticipated substantial increase in market share for Chinese manufacturers in the global high-end zirconia market. Currently, zirconium oxychloride, a key raw material, has risen by 30% since the beginning of the year; prices for zirconia—the largest downstream application of zirconium oxychloride—have also increased by nearly 30% year-to-date. As a high-value component of zirconia, electronic-grade ultra-pure nano-zirconia is now quoted at $50–65.7 per kilogram, while high-end yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) powders are priced between $50–150 per kilogram, reflecting significant price increases. The domestic high-end zirconia market is currently experiencing simultaneous growth in both volume and price.
5. CITIC Construction Investment: Continued optimism toward domestic large models and computing power sectors
China Construction Bank Research Report states that Zhipu has officially launched its next-generation large model, GLM-5.2. The release of GLM-5.2 marks a new phase in which domestic large models have entered the ranks of globally top-tier models with pricing power. According to data from Artificial Analysis, GLM-5.2 ranks fourth globally. China Construction Bank believes that the rapid development of Zhipu and other domestic models indicates strong demand for computing power in China, and continues to maintain a positive outlook on domestic large models and the computing power sector.
6. CITIC Construction Investment: Overseas rare earth shortages lead to production cuts and shutdowns downstream, benefiting the entire domestic industrial chain from upstream to downstream.
According to a research report from CITIC Construction Investment, domestic dental zirconia companies have confirmed receipt of a notice from Japan’s Toto regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply, marking the transition of raw material shortages from expectation to reality following restrictions on overseas rare earth supplies. Yttria-stabilized nanoscale zirconia (YSZ) is a high-performance ceramic material doped with yttria. Due to restricted overseas rare earth supplies, the price differential between domestic and international markets has reached as high as hundreds of times. Domestic yttria prices are approximately RMB 55,000 per ton, while the Rotterdam port price stands at USD 457.50 per kg, and Baichuan reports the European market price at USD 1,175 per kg—indicating a substantial price gap. Additionally, according to Baichuan data, the price differential for dysprosia is approximately eightfold, terbia fivefold, gadolinia fortyfold, and scandia sixfold. Rare earth elements are indispensable additives for advanced materials and high-end manufacturing. As overseas rare earth supplies tighten and domestic-international price spreads widen, domestic high-end materials incorporating rare earths are poised to capture a larger global market share, benefiting all segments of the rare earth industry chain—from upstream to downstream.
7. Galaxy Securities: After the turmoil subsides, gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend.
According to a research report from Galaxy Securities, in the first half of 2026, rising oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East intensified inflation expectations, causing markets to shift from expectations of Fed rate cuts to anticipating rate hikes within the year. Combined with liquidity realization, this pressured gold prices after an initial surge. Currently, the market has fully priced in one Fed rate hike in the second half of the year. If tensions in the Middle East and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz ease in the second half, leading to declining oil prices and inflation, and if expectations for marginal monetary easing by the Fed strengthen, gold prices could regain upward momentum. Meanwhile, the escalating global order instability and concerns over U.S. debt credibility, coupled with the tangible progress toward "de-dollarization" and a shift in the global credit currency system, will sustain the long-term fundamental driver of increased gold purchases by central banks, institutional investors, and individual households—supporting a medium- to long-term upward trend in gold prices and enhancing the valuation of China’s A-share gold sector.