BlockBeats news, on May 16, according to aggregated market research and institutional forecasts, gold briefly surpassed its historical high of $5,300 per ounce in 2026 and has since pulled back to around $4,700, but most Wall Street institutions still believe it could reclaim the $5,000 mark by year-end.
The 2026 price targets from multiple investment banks are concentrated between $4,500 and $6,300, with J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo both issuing optimistic forecasts of $6,300, UBS predicting approximately $5,900, and Goldman Sachs raising its forecast to $5,400. More conservative institutions, such as the World Bank, project an average annual price of approximately $3,575.
Analysis indicates that the key factors supporting gold prices include sustained gold purchases by central banks worldwide, rising geopolitical risks, and declining confidence in fiat currencies amid real interest rates and fiscal deficits. In particular, emerging market central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves over multiple years is seen as providing long-term "structural support" for gold prices.
However, there is significant divergence in the market. Some institutions believe that if the dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise, or oil price shocks prompt the Fed to tighten policy, gold prices could fall back to the $4,000 range or lower.
Overall, the market generally believes gold remains in a long-term bull structure, but its trajectory in 2026 will heavily depend on macroeconomic policies, the dollar cycle, and geopolitical developments, with $5,000 having shifted from an upside target to a key psychological and technical threshold.