Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Danske Bank: The Federal Reserve may raise rates at least twice
Danske Bank senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen stated in a report that they expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice, in December 2026 and March 2027, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. “However, we emphasize that there is a risk that rate hikes could come earlier and exceed two increases,” they said. Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair sent a clear signal that the Fed is increasingly moving away from forward guidance on future monetary policy decisions. “All signs indicate a preference for greater discretion in future policy decisions,” said Danske Bank analysts.
2. Standard Chartered: The U.S. economic "exceptionalism" may support a stronger dollar.
Although crude oil prices have retreated to pre-Iran-war levels, easing inflation concerns, volatility in emerging market assets has intensified due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and renewed market skepticism about the sustainability of the rally in AI-related stocks. Dan Pan, an Americas economist at Standard Chartered in New York, said, “The U.S. economic ‘exceptionalism’ could support a stronger dollar.” However, she also noted that some of the market’s reaction following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting “may have been excessive,” and that “if the Fed holds rates steady, this could also boost market risk appetite toward emerging market assets.”
3. IDC: The AI industry is shifting from infrastructure development to an explosion of enterprise-level applications
At the recent IDC China ICT Market Trends Forum, Robert Parker, Global Senior Vice President and General Manager of Industry Research at IDC, stated in his keynote speech that the technology industry is entering its most significant growth cycle in thirty years. “The global AI industry has entered a super cycle, with the market shifting from infrastructure development to an explosion of enterprise-level applications.”
4. IDC: By 2027, inference will account for over 70% of intelligent computing demand.
At the recent IDC China ICT Market Trends Forum, Zhou Zhenggang, Vice President of IDC China, stated in his speech that by 2027, inference will account for over 70% of intelligent computing demand, and the growth rate of edge infrastructure will surpass that of core data centers. The global accelerated computing server market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 30%. The competitive advantage in the AI field has shifted: the key is no longer possessing the strongest computing power, but rather how to transform AI into sustainable business capabilities at the lowest token cost.
5. Jefferies: Interest rate markets are unwilling to reflect expectations of oil price declines.
Mohit Kumar of Jefferies stated in a report that, despite the decline in oil prices, the interest rate market has been slow to incorporate expectations of lower oil prices into its pricing. He said, “We must acknowledge that, as the market focuses on increased throughput through the Strait of Hormuz, the decline in oil prices has exceeded our expectations. However, the interest rate market has been reluctant to reflect expectations of the impact from lower oil prices.” Jefferies believes one of the primary effects of the U.S.-Iran agreement is that major central banks around the world no longer need to raise rates. “We maintain our view that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year, and its next move will be a cut, not a hike.”
6. Danske Bank: The prospect of Fed rate hikes signals rising U.S. interest rates
Danske Bank senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen noted that Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027, implying that U.S. interest rates are projected to rise over the coming year. The analysts forecast that the 2-year and 10-year USD swap rates will rise to 4.15% and 4.50%, respectively, within the next year. They stated, “Furthermore, we expect the worsening U.S. debt burden to continue exerting upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve.” They highlighted that the risk lies in the Federal Reserve raising rates faster or by a greater magnitude than currently anticipated by the bank’s analysts.
7. Prudential: Tends toward short-term fixed-income assets under inflation risk
Vincent Chung of Prudential Financial stated that as global manufacturing activity recovers and raw material costs continue to rise, the market may be underestimating the risk of inflation becoming more persistent. The co-portfolio manager noted in a report: “Although investors still hope that productivity gains from artificial intelligence will offset inflationary pressures, these benefits may take time to materialize.” Meanwhile, the market may face a period of volatility as it reassesses growth, inflation, and interest rate prospects. In this environment, he favors allocating to shorter-duration fixed-income assets, including high-quality global high-yield bonds and select emerging market credit. He added that inflation-linked bonds can also serve as an important tool for portfolio diversification.
8. Westpac Bank: Expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to begin raising rates in September
Westpac Bank stated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now less likely to raise rates as aggressively as initially expected, as an early resolution to the Iran conflict implies weaker inflation prospects and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to begin rate hikes in September, followed by only one additional hike for the remainder of the year. This implies the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, then decline to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had forecast a peak rate of 4.25%. Westpac wrote: “Our central view indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike rates once fewer times this year than our most recent forecast, but once more than before the conflict.”
9. Goldman Sachs: Indonesia is expected to maintain its MSCI Emerging Markets status driven by reforms
Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that, although further index weight reductions and potential removals of certain stocks remain possible with the inclusion of updated equity disclosures, Indonesia is expected to retain its MSCI Emerging Markets status. MSCI recently maintained Indonesia’s emerging markets classification, acknowledged progress in market reforms, and deferred a final decision until November. The analysts stated that uncertainty surrounding index adjustments and a challenging economic environment may continue to weigh on investor sentiment. They added that higher interest rates have helped stabilize the rupiah, but weak domestic demand, slowing credit growth, and cooling retail sales could pose downside risks. Goldman Sachs maintains an “Underweight” rating on Indonesia’s equity market.
10. Yamato Securities: Japan's investment plan may intensify concerns in the Japanese government bond market over fiscal conditions.
Koji Hamada, economist at Daiwa Securities, said that Japan’s massive investment plan aimed at boosting economic growth and enhancing economic security may continue to fuel fiscal concerns in the Japanese government bond market. He believes that different industries require varying levels of government support, with the most urgent funding needs in sectors such as semiconductors and cloud computing data centers. Even industries with lower capital intensity may rely on long-term financing. Regardless of the ultimate outcomes of these investments, the government’s plan means that the volume of newly issued yen-denominated government bonds will inevitably rise.
11. JPMorgan raised its bull-case target for the South Korean stock market's Kospi index to 15,000 points.
JPMorgan raised its target for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) and recommended buying on dips, maintaining its highest overweight position on South Korean equities. JPMorgan strategists wrote in their report: “This is driven by our constructive outlook on artificial intelligence and the earnings potential of related hardware companies. Retail buying still has room to increase.” Under JPMorgan’s bull case scenario, the Kospi has 77% upside potential from Wednesday’s closing level of 8,471.02. JPMorgan also raised its base case and bear case targets to 12,500 and 8,000, respectively.
Domestic
CITIC Construction Investment: Container space across multiple routes remains tight, driving continued strength in global container shipping rates.
A research report from CITIC Construction Securities indicates that freight rates on the U.S. route continue to surge. The SCFI index has risen for seven consecutive weeks, with mainstream FAK rates ranging from $5,000 to $5,500 per FEU, and premium舱位 exceeding $6,200 per FEU; the shortage of capacity on the U.S. East Coast is expected to last longer than on the U.S. West Coast. The new CPSC regulations have prompted companies to rush shipments ahead of schedule, compounded by reduced effective capacity due to drought-related congestion in the Panama Canal. Shipping lines are tightly controlling and withholding space, leaving virtually all capacity booked from June to early July. The Latin America route has entered its peak pre-holiday shipping season early, pushing rates higher across the board. The South America East route has seen the steepest increases, with significant spot rate premiums. Expectations of tariff adjustments in Brazil have driven shippers to consolidate exports; long-term port congestion at key Latin American ports has created a pronounced shortage of 40-foot refrigerated containers, and empty container returns remain slow. Shipping lines have repeatedly imposed GRI and PSS surcharges, sustaining upward pressure on rates. Freight rates on the Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes have also strengthened simultaneously. Rates on both routes are expected to rise again in July; geopolitical tensions on the Middle East route have increased transportation costs. Peak-season cargo is being stockpiled, and detours around the Red Sea have extended vessel turnaround times; the release of capacity through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and carriers frequently skip ports to maintain schedule reliability, keeping container supply persistently tight.
2. Report: By 2030, the total scale of China’s full-domain electrification industry chain is expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan.
On the 24th, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released the "Research Report on the Development of Comprehensive Electrification Industry," which for the first time introduced the concept of comprehensive electrification. The report forecasts that by 2030, the total economic scale of the entire industrial chain—including new energy power generation, energy storage, electric equipment manufacturing, charging and swapping infrastructure, and battery recycling—could exceed 8 trillion yuan.
3. CITIC Securities U.S. Stock Strategy: Focus on Technology, Defense, Energy Infrastructure, and Financials in the Second Half of the Year
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the valuation percentiles of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have declined significantly from their historical highs, while U.S. stock earnings estimates for the full year have continued to be revised upward, maintaining an attractive alignment between valuation and earnings. For sector allocation, the report recommends focusing on four areas in the second half of the year: technology, defense, energy infrastructure, and financial services (banks and fintech), as fundamentals will continue to drive the primary market narrative.
4. CICC: Future high-end AI servers are expected to adopt a composite cooling solution of "diamond heat spreaders + full liquid cooling."
CICC's research report suggests that near-chip cooling and liquid cooling form a complementary system. The power consumption of current H100, Blackwell, and Rubin series GPUs continues to exceed one kilowatt, while 3D packaging further increases local heat flux on the chip, exposing thermal conductivity bottlenecks in copper and aluminum materials. Diamond exhibits an ultra-high thermal conductivity of approximately 2000 W/m·K and a low coefficient of thermal expansion, enabling rapid heat spreading across chip hotspots. In terms of industrial implementation, diamond is responsible for near-chip heat spreading and dissipation, while liquid cooling handles system-level heat removal at the rack level; the two are not mutually exclusive. In the future, high-end AI servers are expected to adopt a hybrid cooling solution combining diamond heat spreaders with full liquid cooling.
5. CITIC Securities: Bank stocks, as stable equity assets with high return certainty, have seen their appeal to capital allocation steadily increase over the long term.
China Securities stated that the most critical factor influencing sector investment in the next phase will be the shift in capital market narratives—namely, sustained investor preference for high-yield financial assets on the funding side, while equity assets are likely to exhibit structural returns over the long term. As stable equity assets with higher return certainty, bank stocks are expected to see steadily increasing appeal to investors. Looking ahead to 2026–27, the banking sector is entering the latter stage of its risk cycle, with the first derivative of ROE already improving. We anticipate that industry-wide ROE will stabilize over the next two years, ranging between 8% and 9%. After significant capital outflows, bank stocks are poised for a revaluation as “high-certainty equity assets,” offering substantial absolute return potential.