BlockBeats news: On January 19, Glassnode posted data on social media indicating that the STH-NUPL metric (measuring the ratio of unrealized gains and losses of new investors relative to the market value of short-term holders) shows that new investors have continuously been in a net unrealized loss position since November 2025. For this group to return to a net profit status, a Bitcoin price rebound above approximately $98,000 appears to be the minimum threshold.
BlockBeats Note: Based on the patterns of past bear markets and significant price corrections, continuous declines during a bear market may cause short-term holders (STHs, new investors) to gradually sell their holdings while facing paper losses (realizing losses). In the 2018 bear market, the STH-NUPL metric dropped as low as around -0.6, and a large number of short-term players were forced to cut their losses, realizing massive losses. This ultimately cleared a significant amount of speculative bubbles, and the market bottomed out before entering a new bull cycle. In the 2022 bear market (after the FTX collapse), the realized loss peak for STHs hit a record high. After weak hands were flushed out, the price bottomed around $16,000 and subsequently began a bull market rally.