Glassnode Co-Founder Suggests Bitcoin May Be Near the Bottoming Range of $46,000–$54,000

ChainCatcher report: Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis on X regarding recent Bitcoin price movements, noting that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range—down nearly 50% from its all-time high and 24% over the past month. The price has broken below the upper band of its valuation framework and entered a cluster of historical price levels associated with past cycle bottoms. Rafael further emphasized that market bottoms cannot be predicted in advance but can be characterized by probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022 and is now within a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. The most probable bottom range is currently estimated at $46,000–$54,000; levels below this, at $35,000–$40,000, represent a rare “selling tail.” Notably, the magnitude of cycle corrections has been gradually decreasing: previous cycle lows saw declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, whereas this cycle has seen only a ~50% drop—suggesting that the most probable bottom is likely higher up in the range, though extreme selling cannot be ruled out.