Foreign media: Glassnode co-founder Rafael believes that Bitcoin’s recent pullback has brought the market into a set of historically common support levels. It briefly fell below $60,000 before rebounding above $61,000, with the price once again approaching several long-term valuation metrics.
Key support level
Rafael noted that Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven price of the median holder for the first time since December 2022. The current market is also approaching two closely watched levels: the median realized price of approximately $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of approximately $61,700.
$46,000 to $54,000 range
He believes the CVDD model is more noteworthy. The indicator is currently near $46,200 and has historically played a role near final lows across previous cycles. Based on this framework, he identifies a high-probability bottom range of $54,000 to $46,000.
A further decline is still possible
Rafael also noted that if the market continues to weaken, the $35,000 to $40,000 range remains a support zone. However, this range has occurred less frequently in Bitcoin’s trading history and thus has a relatively lower probability.
Additional information: He also believes that if Bitcoin reclaimes the $75,000 to $79,000 range, it would be a more credible signal of the first clear structural repair in the market.