BlockBeats news, on June 7, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted that Bitcoin has retraced approximately 50% from its all-time high, with on-chain data showing BTC currently trading near a key support zone formed by the median realized price ($64,100) and the 200-week moving average ($61,700). Historically, Bitcoin has traded below this level for only about 7% of its trading time.
From a long-term valuation model, below the 200-week moving average lie the realized price (approximately $54,000), the CVDD (approximately $46,200), the equilibrium price (approximately $40,000), and the Delta price (approximately $35,000). In every prior bear market bottom, the price touched this cost range before reversing, with CVDD historically serving as the most accurate bottom anchor. Based on the current model, the range of $46,000 to $54,000 represents the higher-probability bottom zone, while $35,000 to $40,000 constitutes a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic conditions—historically occurring on fewer than 3% of trading days.
However, as the Bitcoin market gradually matures, the magnitude of cyclical drawdowns has shown a narrowing trend. Previous bear markets saw maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this cycle has thus far declined only about 50% from its all-time high. This suggests that further downside remains possible, but the more likely support zone lies between $46,000 and $54,000. If a rebound follows, the first key recovery area will be between $75,000 and $79,000, with stronger resistance near the 50-week moving average at approximately $93,000 and the prior all-time high.