Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin May Be Near the Bottoming Range of $46,000–$54,000

Huo Xing Finance reports that Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, posted an analysis on X regarding recent Bitcoin price movements. He noted that Bitcoin’s current price range of $62,000 represents a nearly 50% decline from its all-time high and a 24% drop over the past month, having broken below the upper band of its pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster historically associated with market bottoms. Rafael further emphasized that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance but can only be defined through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has, for the first time since December 2022, fallen below the median holder breakeven line and now resides within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. The current high-probability bottom zone may lie between $46,000 and $54,000; levels below this at $35,000–$40,000 represent rare “selling tails.” Notably, the magnitude of cyclical corrections is gradually decreasing: previous cycle lows saw declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, whereas this cycle has seen only a ~50% drop—suggesting that the high-probability bottom is more likely to reside higher up, though extreme selling cannot be ruled out.