Odaily Planet Daily reports that on-chain data firm Glassnode has noted that Bitcoin is entering an "excess loss-realization" phase. If historical patterns hold, the price may continue to face downward pressure over the coming months, with a potential downside target near $44,000. Data shows that on Monday, Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average of realized profit-loss ratio fell below 1, indicating that the market as a whole is in a state of selling at a loss. This metric falling below 1 typically reflects panic selling, margin pressure, or declining macro risk appetite. Historically, after this indicator drops below 1, it is often followed by a sustained period of loss realization lasting at least six months; a rebound above 1 usually signals easing selling pressure.
Historical bear market data shows that loss-driven selling typically accelerates in the middle of the cycle, accompanied by further price declines. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s price fell approximately 25% over the six months following a drop below 1; in the similar phase of the 2018 bear market, it plunged more than 50% within five months. If history repeats, this current correction may continue for another five months, completing the transition into the “full-scale realization of excessive losses” phase. If market deleveraging and loss-realization pressures persist, Bitcoin’s price may remain under pressure over the coming months until the cyclical cleanup is fully realized.