Key Insights:
- Crypto news: Arkham data indicates Winklevoss Capital’s BTC dropped from 23K to below 11K in a year.
- Gemini projected $165M-$175M in revenue for 2025, but operating expenses exceed $520M.
- Gemini is slashing staff, moving out of key areas, and pivoting towards prediction markets and custody.
Crypto news around Gemini is turning heads as Tyler Winklevoss strikes a contrarian tone amid extreme bearish sentiment. He said the mood is so bad he is “optimistic”, even as Gemini goes through a sharp reset and on-chain data indicates Winklevoss Capital has been steadily dwindling exposure to Bitcoin. The gap between public confidence and visible de-risking is now leading to a new debate in crypto news circles around what institutional behavior signals at market lows.
Crypto News: Arkham Data Shows Winklevoss BTC Selling
On-chain trackers, such as Arkham, showed Winklevoss Capital has been selling down its Bitcoin holdings over the past 12 months. The wallet balance is reportedly down from about 23,000 BTC in February of 2025 to less than 11,000 BTC in February of 2026. That drawdown has been a focal point in crypto news, especially considering that Winklevoss has publicly claimed that extreme pessimism can be a bullish contrarian marker.
A steady decline implies systematic selling and not the one-off forced liquidation. This may represent treasury management, liquidity needs, or a change in risk tolerance during a downturn. Even if a wallet is still big, the direction of travel often determines market narratives.
The trimming is also coinciding with softer demand conditions across spot markets. When volumes are compressing, exchanges and funds often emphasize preservation of cash. From that angle, the wallet’s trend can be interpreted as defensive, even though long-term conviction can remain.
Gemini Revenue Rises as Costs Surge
Gemini’s recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission predicted that it would generate $165 million to $175 million in net revenue in 2025. That would be up from $141 million in 2024. The filing also referred to around 600,000 monthly transacting users, a 17 percent year-on-year growth.
However, the expense side is where pressure increases. Gemini had projected its operating expenses at $520 million to $530 million, compared with $308 million the previous year. That gap implies profitability stress and helps explain why restructuring has accelerated.
The filing confirmed a senior leadership shakeup. Gemini said it had separated itself from its chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer. It added that Cameron Winklevoss would have more responsibility as interim executives assume positions in finance and law. For crypto news watchers, that sounds like a call for tighter control and swift execution.
Layoffs and Market Exits Reshape Strategy
Notably, Gemini announced on Feb. 5 that it would cut a quarter of its staff. It also said it would exit the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia. The company is focusing on the US and Singapore markets, where it is likely to find clearer regulatory paths and better commercial traction.
A Bloomberg report provided more details on the reset. It said Gemini’s spot market share shrank to “around 0.1% of global spot crypto trading in January, down from 0.6% in June 2025.” It also said the market value of Gemini fell from nearly $4 billion to below $700 million since its public listing last year.
Bloomberg further reported that Gemini is shifting focus to a CFTC-regulated prediction markets platform. It also identified custody and credit card services as strategic priorities. Those products can generate more stable revenue when spot volumes are struggling, which is why this direction has become an important crypto news theme.
Extreme Fear Deepens as Big Holders Diverge
Gemini’s restructuring is taking place with unusually poor market sentiment. Miners like Bitdeer have sold off their BTC holdings, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen weeks of outflows. Sentiment gauges such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have slipped into extreme fear territory, with growing searches such as “Bitcoin going to zero.”
Still, some high-profile players are on board. Metaplanet has been continuously piling up Bitcoin even during the drawdown. Strategy, the biggest publicly held BTC holder with 717,131 BTC, gave a clue to its 100th Bitcoin purchase. Arthur Hayes also shared a portfolio that is still highly weighted in BTC, along with gold and oil.
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