- Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn lowered CLARITY Act passage odds from 75% to 60% due to Senate timing concerns.
- Senate floor time is constrained by debates over surveillance legislation and other priorities before the August recess.
- Unresolved ethics and illicit finance provisions remain key hurdles, though Thorn still sees the bill as more likely than not to pass.
Galaxy Research Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn lowered his estimate for the U.S. CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%. According to Thorn, the downgrade reflects growing pressure from the Senate calendar rather than changes to the bill itself. He said floor scheduling, unresolved negotiations, and competing legislative priorities have reduced the available window for action.
Senate Schedule Creates New Pressure
According to Thorn, the CLARITY Act cleared committee with a 15-9 bipartisan vote and reached the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. However, he said the remaining procedural steps require valuable floor time before the August recess.
Thorn noted that lawmakers will likely shift attention to the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The procedural vote failed 47-52, placing additional pressure on the Senate agenda.
He also pointed to a previous week consumed by debate surrounding the administration’s anti-weaponization fund. Together, those issues have reduced the number of workable legislative days.
Outstanding Issues Still Unresolved
As the calendar tightens, Alex Thorn said negotiations around key provisions have shown little visible progress. According to his analysis, ethics requirements supported by Senate Democrats remain unresolved.
He also said illicit finance provisions continue to attract discussion without a public compromise. Thorn added that both issues are solvable, but they have not yet reached a final agreement.
He argued that Senate leadership may hesitate to dedicate floor time without confidence that enough Democratic votes are secured.
What Could Change The Outlook
Thorn said the estimate could move higher if leadership commits to a floor vote during early or mid-July. Public signs that ethics and illicit finance questions have been resolved would also improve the outlook.
According to Thorn, combining the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee texts into one package would provide another positive signal. He maintained that the bill remains more likely than not to pass, but timing has become the central challenge.