Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn has lowered the expected likelihood of the U.S. CLARITY Act passing by 2026 from 75% to 60%. He believes the primary obstacle is no longer political support, but the shrinking window of time available in the Senate to advance the bill.
Senate agenda squeezes time
Thorn stated that the Senate’s upcoming agenda may be dominated by FISA-related matters. Previous failed votes on related authorizations have led to a more crowded legislative schedule. Meanwhile, Congress has been addressing other priorities recently, leaving less time available for the Crypto Market Structure Act.
He also noted that disagreements over congressional ethics rules and anti-money laundering provisions remain unresolved, further complicating the bill's progress.
The core lies in defining regulatory jurisdiction.
The CLARITY Act is considered one of the most prominent proposed bills in Washington currently addressing the structure of the crypto market. Its core objective is to further clarify the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding digital assets.
Under the proposed framework, digital assets classified as commodities would be primarily regulated by the CFTC; those classified as securities would remain under the jurisdiction of the SEC. This distinction will directly impact token issuance methods, exchange operating models, and the compliance requirements projects must meet.
July 4 target has become uncertain
Despite lowering the probability of passage, Thorn remains relatively optimistic about the bill’s ultimate prospects. However, he noted that the legislative window is becoming more sensitive, and market expectations could adjust rapidly if the Senate schedule continues to shift.
Previously, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis had set July 4 as a target date for advancing market structure legislation in the Senate. Now, this timeline faces greater uncertainty.