Galaxy Research Lowers Odds of CLARITY Act 2026 Passage to 30%

According to Huoxing Finance, on July 24, Galaxy Digital’s Research Director Alex Thorn published a report lowering the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted by the end of 2026 from 50% to 30%. Thorn noted that although the consolidated text of the bill—616 pages and 104 provisions—was officially released this past Wednesday, there remains a significant shortfall in votes. Among Republicans, Senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against it, and McConnell has not voted since his hospitalization in June; reliable yes votes stand at approximately 50, still short of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster. On the Democratic side, seven senators who previously participated in negotiations issued a joint statement declaring the current text “inadequate,” particularly objecting to the provision that enforcement of the bill’s ethics clauses would rest solely with the Department of Justice and to the 2029 sunset clause; Senator Elizabeth Warren has directly stated that the bill “should be rejected.” Regarding the legislative timeline, Thorn argues that the real deadline for progress is July 30 (Wednesday), not the Senate’s official recess date of August 7, as procedural steps themselves require several days. He stated that if the bill fails to pass the Senate before recess, its prospects for becoming law in 2026 will diminish sharply.