Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn lowered his odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%. The cut reflects a tightening Senate calendar rather than any weakness in the bill.
The crypto market structure bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support and reached the floor calendar on June 1. What it lacks is a scheduled floor vote before the August recess.
Timing, Not Substance, Drives the Downgrade
Thorn framed the move as mechanical. The committee approved the bill 15 to 9, and it now sits on the Senate calendar as Calendar No. 423.
His concern is the number of usable days left. The bill must clear the Senate, and likely the House again, before lawmakers leave for the August recess at the end of July.
After that, midterm campaigning drains floor time for major legislation. That dynamic has shaped the bill’s passage hurdles ahead since it cleared Senate Banking last month.
“…lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened,” wrote Thorn.
Thorn’s odds stand slightly higher than those on Polymarket, where bettors see only a 54% chance the Clarity Act will pass in 2026. This represents an 11% drop from the odds recorded the previous day.
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Floor Time Keeps Slipping Away
Indeed, the runway has shrunk in recent weeks. The Senate lost days to a fight over the administration’s anti-weaponization fund.
A procedural vote to renew Section 702 of the surveillance law then failed 47 to 52 on June 5. The authority expires June 12, so much of next week’s floor time points toward reauthorizing it.
The squeeze echoes the bill’s earlier scheduling delays, when the Senate ran short of time after its bipartisan committee vote.
The Math Still Needs Democrats
A floor vote would need roughly 60 votes to clear cloture. Thorn expects Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to vote no.
Both also opposed the failed FISA extension. That leaves leadership needing at least nine Democrats to carry the market structure bill across the floor.
Ethics provisions and illicit finance rules remain open, and Democrats have tied their support to the ethics language. No public deal has emerged on either issue.
“I’m still optimistic but the timing matters a lot now and odds could shift wildly as the calendar progresses,” Thorn added.
A credible commitment from Majority Leader John Thune to schedule July floor time would likely push the odds back up.
Absent that, the path narrows to a riskier September attempt.