Original text:All-In Podcast
Translated by: Yuliya, PANews
The All-In Podcast is one of the most popular technology and business podcasts globally, hosted by four top venture capitalists and close friends. The four hosts are:Jason Calacanis(early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, and moderator)Chamath Palihapitiya is a Sri Lankan-Canadian entrepreneur and investor. He is best known for being one of the original employees of Facebook, where he served as the first Vice(Billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the "King of SPACs," with sharp and incisive views)David Friedberg(Founder of The Production Board, with a strong scientific background, known as the "Sultan of Science"), as well as David Sacks(First "AI and Cryptocurrency Czar" of the U.S., close friend of Elon Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, and recently deeply involved in U.S. political activities). In this episode, the four guests made in-depth predictions about political, business, and technological trends for 2026, covering topics such as California's wealth tax, Trump economics, the impact of AI on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment recommendations.
The following is the detailed content of this conversation, compiled by PANews:
Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis
Jason Calacanis (hereinafter referred to as Jason): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is really curious—how have you adjusted since moving to Texas?
David Sacks (hereinafter referred to as Sacks): I really like the 70°F (about 21°C) weather here. I finished moving in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed the lease for the Austin office for Craft Ventures. Everything is all set.
Jason: Chamath, what about you?
Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter referred to as Chamath): We are going to conduct an inspection, but we haven't made the final decision yet.
Sacks: The funniest part was when we were discussing the California wealth tax in our group chat, and Chamath was still putting on a show, saying, "I'm going to stay and fight, I won't leave my home." Then I got a call from my agent saying she was helping Chamath find a house.
Jason:Whoa! Is Chamath up to some backroom deals?
Chamath:I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly already left, their combined net worth is approximately $500 billion. This is very bad for California's long-term budget. If we also include those still on the fence but possibly forced to leave, about half of the taxable wealth in California's budget estimates could be lost.
Sacks:I predict that this(The California wealth tax) will be a topic of discussion throughout the year.They are collecting signatures, and it's estimated that about 850,000 signatures are needed to get this proposal on the ballot. If it makes the ballot in April, it will cause significant panic, and many people will leave due to the inability to bear the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, people expect some version of it to resurface in 2028. This is exactly why I decided to leave.
Chamath:If you are an entrepreneur with a good idea, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed and hold a large amount of illiquid stock, you have to pay 5% of the stock's valuation as taxes, which could actually bankrupt your own company.
Sacks:And what if your company goes back to zero in the second year? You still owe the taxes. Also, one of the possible reasons Larry Page and Sergey Brin (founders of Google) left might be the proposed super-voting rights clause.This clause stipulates that if you hold super voting rights, the tax authority will calculate the value of all your shares as a multiple of the super voting rights.For example, they hold 52% of the voting rights in Google, and with Google's market capitalization at 400 billion, their net assets might be considered as each owning 100 billion, rather than the actual 20 billion. For them,A 5% tax actually becomes a 25% or even 50% tax.
Jason:Will this "asset seizure tax" pass? Let's make a lightning-fast prediction.
David Friedberg (hereinafter referred to as Friedberg): I think it won't make it onto the ballot.
Chamath:I think it won't pass, but it will be put to a vote at the meeting.
Sacks: Previously, the probability of it getting on the ballot on Polymarket was only 45%, but it surged to 80% after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders got involved. There are only two scenarios in which it won't make the ballot: one is that the union (SEIU) runs out of funds to collect signatures, and the other is that California Governor Gavin Newsom can negotiate with them to withdraw.
Chamath: But if it gets on the ballot, the chance of passing is 40%.
The Biggest Business Winners of 2026
Jason:Next up is the business winner. Last year's predictions: Friedberg picked robots and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath picked a dollar-backed stablecoin, Gavin picked large companies that effectively leverage AI, and I picked Tesla and Google. We could all say we were quite accurate. Friedberg, who are you picking this year?
Friedberg:I have two options.
- First isHuaweiI believe that Huawei is collaborating with SMIC and deeply investing in the chip field. They are going all out, and their performance this year will surpass Western expectations.
- Second isPolymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain, allowingIt has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform that provides insights into current events, and I expect it to experience a breakout this year. Following the collaboration we've seen with the New York Stock Exchange, I anticipate that all exchanges—including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even Nasdaq—will take action this year. Prediction markets will not only become markets, but also news.
Chamath:I chooseCopperIn a world increasingly moving toward unilateralism and emphasizing national economic resilience, we still significantly underestimate the gap between global demand and supply for a few key elements. In this context, the asset most likely to "soar to new heights" is copper.It is currently the most useful, cheapest, and most conductive and malleable material, found everywhere from data centers to chips and even weapon systems. At the current rate, the global copper supply will face a shortage of about 70% by 2040.
Sacks: I think 2026 will be a big year for IPOs.A large number of companies will successfully go public, creating trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. For a period of time, people were concerned that the number of publicly traded companies was shrinking, with many companies being privatized. 2026 will mark a significant reversal of this trend, and it will also be part of the "Trump Boom."
Jason:I chose Google correctly last year, and my choice this year isAmazonI believe they will become the first "business singularity"—a company where robots contribute more profit than humans. Their autonomous driving company, Zoox, is making good progress, and at the same time, they are replacing human employees with robots on a large scale. In Austin, we can now get same-day delivery for anything ordered on Amazon, which is supported by a massive automated warehouse and logistics network behind the scenes.
Sacks: I think Jason's judgment about Amazon will ultimately be correct, but for entirely different reasons than the ones he gave.
The Biggest Business Loser in 2026
Jason:After discussing the winners, let's now take a look at the losers. Last year's predictions were largely in agreement—Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin all pointed to enterprise SaaS (Software as a Service), while I chose traditional automakers and real estate. It turned out that enterprise SaaS indeed underperformed in 2025, with companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign all experiencing declines in their stock prices. Friedberg, what is your prediction for business losers this year?
Friedberg: I think the state government will face significant financing difficulties.As more cases of waste, fraud, and abuse within state government agencies are exposed, people will begin to question their long-term solvency. More seriously, the massive unfunded pension liabilities of the states will come to light this year, making people realize that there is a huge financial black hole in state government budgets.
Chamath: I choose the software-industrial complex, which refers to companies that sell SaaS licenses to U.S. businesses.This is an economy with an annual value of $3 to $4 trillion, but 90% of its revenue comes from two segments: "maintenance" and "migration." With the advancement of AI models and technologies, I believe the economic opportunities in these two segments will sharply shrink and contract. Companies will still need software, but incremental revenue will significantly decline, which will severely impact publicly traded SaaS companies.
Sacks:I still chooseCaliforniaBecause the shadow of a wealth tax and the strict regulatory environment are driving businesses and capital out of the state. I sincerely hope you are right, and this bill will not ultimately make it onto the ballot. If it does, there will be a panic exodus.
Jason:My choice isYoung white-collar workers in the United StatesI believe it's becoming increasingly difficult for them to find entry-level jobs now, as companies find it easier to automate with AI than to train recent graduates. I've seen many companies using AI to replace some of the repetitive tasks at the lower level, which are typically performed by young graduates. This doesn't mean there are no opportunities for young people, but rather that they need to become more resilient, self-reliant, and must learn to use AI tools.
Friedberg:I have a different perspective on this. I've heard from some of my CEO friends that,It's currently difficult to hire recent graduates, not because of AI, but due to cultural issues.Many graduates from the Z generation seem to lack motivation, organizational skills, and executive function in work. This could be a special phenomenon of the pandemic era, or it could reflect a deeper cultural shift. Therefore, I believe the difficulty young people face in finding employment is a result of both cultural factors and AI automation.
Jason:I think both are correct. Perhaps these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money to let them loaf around. But I also see many companies telling me that...They can replace the bottom one-third of jobs, which are typically done by young people who have just graduated.
The most significant transaction of 2026
Jason:What's your take on predicting the most significant trade in 2026?
Sacks:I don't want to name specific companies, but I think that...There will be significant breakthroughs in the fields of coding assistants and tool usage.Just like the chatbots at the end of 2022, the popularity of this field is rising sharply, and I believe it will become even more significant this year.
Friedberg: I think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year.Many economic and political factors are driving this process, which will bring more stability to the region.
Chamath:I think it's not about a specific transaction, but rather a transformation in the way transactions are conducted:IP licensing transactions will replace traditional mergers and acquisitions (M&A).Due to increasingly strict antitrust reviews, large-scale mergers and acquisitions have become extremely difficult. As a result, companies are turning to large IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. The collaborations between Google and Character.AI, Microsoft and OpenAI, and NVIDIA and Grok are all examples of this model. I believe this type of transaction will become more common and mature by 2026.
Jason: I think we will see a massive acquisition deal exceeding $50 billion. It could be Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring an AI upstart like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies are aiming for independent IPOs, but I believe an offer that's hard to refuse will eventually emerge. President Trump might direct the government to "Make Mergers Great Again," which is crucial for the U.S. to maintain global competitiveness.
The boldest contrarian prediction for 2026
Jason:Next is everyone's favorite part: the most daring contrarian predictions. Last year, I predicted that OpenAI would lose its leading position, and indeed that's what happened. Chamath predicted a crisis among major banks; Gavin predicted annual GDP growth exceeding 5%; and Friedberg predicted a resurgence of socialism. It's fair to say that everyone's predictions were quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what is your contrarian prediction for this year?
Friedberg:My prediction is based on a premise: that a revolution will occur in Iran and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But this is not my contrarian view; I believe this will happen. My contrarian view is:The collapse of Iran would not bring stability to the Middle East; instead, it would trigger more conflicts. Many people view Iran as a force that undermines regional stability, but I believe it actually plays a certain "stabilizing" role. Once this regime disappears, other Arab countries (such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will erupt into new conflicts over power and influence, especially after the emergence of a two-state solution for Palestine. The situation in the Middle East will become far worse than anyone expects.
Sacks:My reverse prediction is:AI will increase rather than reduce the demand for knowledge workers. I want to cite "Jevons' Paradox": when the cost of a resource decreases, the total demand for it actually increases, because people discover more uses for it. For example, a reduction in the cost of generating code will lead society to create vast amounts of software; a reduction in the cost of radiological scans will make scans more widespread, thus requiring more radiologists to interpret and verify AI results. The so-called "job loss narrative" is not only incorrect—we will actually see job growth.
Chamath:I have two reverse predictions.
- First: SpaceX will not go public through an IPO, but instead will be reverse merged into Tesla. I think Elon Musk will use this opportunity to consolidate his control by integrating his two most important assets into a single equity structure.
- Second: Central banks around the world will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin, and seek a completely new, controllable cryptocurrency paradigm.To safeguard national sovereignty, they require an asset that is transferable, secure, and completely private—an asset that cannot be easily monitored by other countries, whether allies or adversaries. Technologically, it must also be capable of withstanding the potential threats posed by quantum computing to existing cryptographic systems within the next 5 to 10 years.
Jason:My reverse prediction is:The confrontation between China and the United States will be largely resolved. I believe this could become a landmark achievement of President Trump's second term. Both sides will establish a win-win working relationship, rather than engaging in a zero-sum game where one side loses.
The best-performing assets in 2026
Jason:Last year, Gavin's recommended high-bandwidth memory manufacturers (such as Micron) saw their stock prices surge by 230%, and Friedberg's recommended Chinese tech stocks also performed well. This year, what assets do you think will perform best?
Friedberg:I choose again. Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain, allowingIts network effects are becoming evident, and it is gradually replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, showing great potential.
Chamath:I chooseA basket of critical metalsThis is consistent with the logic of copper I mentioned earlier. Against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts and the reshaping of supply chains, the demand for these basic materials will remain rigid.
Sacks:I chooseA super cycle of expansion in the technology sectorThis is still part of my "Trump Boom" theory. And just today, as we're recording this show, the Atlanta Fed has just raised its forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to an amazing 5.4%.
Chamath:There are several things that people are not aware of.
- First, due to immigration issues, the non-farm employment data was reset, and income growth among low-income groups has been very rapid.
- Second, the productivity improvements brought by AI.
- Third, the tax cut policy that will take effect in 2026.
All these factors combined create a significant driving force for growth.Don't bet against the U.S. economy; it's already ready for takeoff. A 6% GDP growth is not unrealistic.
Jason:In this environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates may be cut, and people have extra cash on hand, my choice isSpeculation and gambling sectors, including platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more discretionary money to bet and speculate.
The Worst Performing Assets in 2026
Jason:Last year, our predictions about the worst-performing assets were surprisingly consistent, almost all pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional automotive/real estate sectors, and events proved our judgment correct. Sacks, which asset do you predict will perform the worst this year?
Sacks: I think it's the high-end housing market in California. Continuously affected by rumors of a wealth tax, this market will face significant pressure.I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, it will trigger a "dead cat bounce," allowing me to offload the properties I currently hold.
Chamath: I think it's hydrocarbons, which is oil. I believe the downward trend in oil prices is irreversible.No matter what your views on climate change are, the trends toward electrification and energy storage technologies are unstoppable. This will continuously reduce the viable applications for oil.I think oil prices are more likely to fall toward $45 per barrel than to return to $65.
Friedberg:I thinkNetflixwill be the worst-performing asset (provided they have not completed the acquisition of Warner Bros.), or more broadly, the worst-performing one will beTraditional media stocksNetflix's content library is facing challenges from all directions. Moreover, the terms they currently offer content creators (cost plus 10%) are very harsh, leading many talented creators to no longer wish to collaborate with them. If they do not expand their content library through mergers and acquisitions, they will face significant difficulties. Meanwhile, traditional media is being challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.
Jason: I choose dollars.Our national debt continues to grow, and it is expected to increase by another $2 trillion this year. If President Trump were to truly increase the military budget by 50%, that would be directly added to our debt. All of this poses a challenge to the value of the U.S. dollar, and this is one of the reasons we are seeing people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.
Trends to Look Forward to in 2026
Jason:The trends we anticipated last year included the return of M&A and IPOs, the rapid development of AI, and the construction of nuclear energy. What trends are you most looking forward to this year?
Friedberg: I think that Iran becoming an independent democratic country will be the most anticipated trend this year.The people there, especially the youth, are longing for freedom, and the economic crisis is also driving this change. This could be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East's landscape.
Sacks: The trend I'm most looking forward to is auditing government spending at all levels. We need to institutionalize a "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" so the public can see where the money is being spent.
Chamath: What I look forward to is the expansion of "Trumpism."No matter your political stance, as an economic participant—whether you are running a business, investing in the stock market, or engaging in cryptocurrency speculation—understanding the changes in the global economic landscape is crucial. Unilateralism and economic resilience represent a major trend, and the outcome will be significant GDP growth.
Jason:I still stand by my prediction from last year and extend it to 2026:The Return of the IPO Market KingI believe that at least two of the major companies like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will file for an IPO this year. This will ignite the market, marking an exciting moment for Silicon Valley, the employees of these companies, and the pension funds and endowments that hold their shares.
The biggest political winner in 2026
Jason:Alright, let's move on to the official predictions. First, who will be the biggest political winner in 2026? Looking back at last year's predictions, Friedberg said young candidates, Gavin (the guest host) said Trump and centrism, Chamath said fiscal conservatives, and I said representatives of Generation X and Millennials. Friedberg, what's your pick this year?
Friedberg: Democratic Socialist (DSA) of the United StatesJust as the MAGA movement has taken over the Republican Party, I believe DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will be solidified by 2026.
Chamath: Anyone who is committed to combating waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels. This is an open race, and I believe this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.
Sacks:I think"Trump Boom"This will be the biggest political winner. Economic good news is already emerging: inflation has dropped to 2.7%, core CPI to 2.6%, third-quarter GDP growth reached 4.3%, the trade deficit is at its lowest since 2009, and layoffs have significantly declined. The S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs, oil prices are falling, and mortgage costs have dropped by $3,000. Real wages have increased by more than $1,000. I predict that by June, we will see a rate cut of 75 to 100 basis points, and in April, there will be a large-scale tax refund due to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions for tips, overtime pay, and more. All of this will have a significant impact on next year's political landscape.
Jason: What do you predict the GDP will be?
Sacks:I choose 5%.
Chamath:I think the lower limit is 5 percent and the upper limit is 6.2 percent. Keep in mind that if we can achieve 6 percent, the only quasi-competitor in the modern world that has ever done so is China, and that was during a period when it had complete coordination and dominance over federal, state, and local economies. It would be remarkable if we could achieve this under democracy and capitalism.
Friedberg:I predict it to be 4.6%.
Jason:My prediction has been swinging between JD Vance and "The Mamdani Moment" (a reference to young socialists like New York City Council member Zohran Mamdani), but I ultimately chose "The Mamdani Moment." He is only 34 years old, and it seems the Democratic Party believes moving fully toward socialism is the easiest path to victory in 2026. I think Trump has created space for this route by ignoring the needs of the American working class. He now resembles a neoconservative more, having bombed seven countries this year and even threatening to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many people.
The Biggest Political Loser in 2026
Jason:After talking about the winners, let's discuss the losers. Last year, both Gavin and I predicted Putin, Chamath predicted progressivism, and Friedberg predicted the neoconservatives who support war. Sacks, who do you think will be the biggest political loser in 2026?
Sacks:I think so.Moderate Democrats(Democratic Centrism). This is actually the other side of your belief that socialists will win. There are two reasons for this:
- First, socialist ideology holds a dominant position among the base voters of the Democratic Party (especially among the youth);
- Second, due to gerrymandering, the majority of congressional districts no longer have real competition. The only genuine threat to Democratic incumbents comes from challengers on their left, so even moderates are forced to move leftward.
Chamath:The biggest loser in 2026 is Monroe Doctrine(The Monroe Doctrine). I think historians will rewrite the Trump presidency when they look back on it.I believe there is a clear "Trumpism" that has superseded the Monroe Doctrine.How should we view war? How should we view our sphere of influence? How should we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism? All of these concepts are outdated. Trump's perspective is one of hemispheric dominance, taking proactive interventions in very specific situations, such as combating drug cartels, controlling immigration, and securing key assets. We now have more transactional relationships, which enable us to respond flexibly and promptly.
Friedberg:I think the biggest political loser in 2026 will beTechnology industryArtificial intelligence and technological wealth have become targets for both left- and right-wing populism. The right is fracturing, as populism is mounting a strong challenge to the alliance between technology and the MAGA movement; meanwhile, the left is growing more assertive due to the alliance between technology and the right.I believe the 2026 midterm elections will be a referendum on the tech industry.
Chamath:Friedberg is absolutely right. I just spoke with three experienced [people/experts] yesterday.Republican SenatorMeeting,They feel very disappointed and distrustful toward some technology companies and their leaders.
Sacks:I thinkThe natural allies in the tech industry are MAGA.Because we still believe in property rights and innovation. If Democrats were truly moving toward socialism, they would want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The populist right is angry precisely because they remember censorship, deplatforming, and shadow bans.Tech companies need to have some "truth and reconciliation" meetings with conservatives.Many companies did so under pressure from the Biden administration, and they also made a mistake by donating only to left-wing causes.
Jason:I agree with Sacks' view that the biggest political loser in 2026 will be the Democratic centrists.
Sacks:Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a neoconservative, and I must respond. The characteristics of neoconservatism are: large-scale invasions, long-term occupations, and nation-building. But did Trump do these things? No. Take Venezuela as an example; the entire operation lasted only three hours, no Americans died, and it was nearly perfect. We did not overthrow the entire regime, but instead worked with the existing regime. This is a new paradigm, not neoconservatism.
Jason:I admit that Trump's military operations were indeed very precise and efficient, and our military performed exceptionally well. However, things can always go wrong. If the operation had failed and we had captured the hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must remain cautious.