Foreign media comment that historical crypto bear markets typically last 8 to 12 months from peak to trough. By this historical measure, if the peak of this cycle occurred at the end of 2025, the deep correction in mid-2026 may already be entering its second half.
Historical periods typically range from 8 to 12 months.
The article reviews two typical downward cycles. During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin reached its low approximately one year after falling from its previous peak, with a maximum decline of about 84%. The 2022 bear market had a similar duration, with Bitcoin hitting its low later that year following the FTX incident, declining about 77% from its peak.
The article suggests that although the triggering factors for these two cycles differed, their durations and drawdown magnitudes were relatively similar; thus, an 8- to 12-month window can serve as a reference period for observing the current market.
However, the article distinguishes between the “bear market decline phase” and the “full cycle.” The former typically refers to the rapid downward movement from a peak to a trough, while the latter also includes consolidation and gradual recovery, often lasting longer.
Three factors determine when the decline will end.
The article argues that a bear market does not end immediately when sentiment improves, but rather goes through several stages.
- First, deleveraging is required; excessively high leveraged positions must be gradually unwound through multiple rounds of price declines and liquidations.
- Second is the emotional purge, as the market shifts from optimism to panic, and finally to investors abandoning their holdings.
- Third is the reconstruction of genuine demand; new buying interest must re-form at lower price levels.
The text mentions that in June 2026, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated; such concentrated liquidations are typically part of a deleveraging process, but historically, they rarely occur only once.
The current market has shown signs of nearing its end.
From a time perspective, the article suggests that the current downturn follows a pattern largely consistent with historical trends. Bitcoin is down approximately 22% this year, Ethereum has dropped nearly 29% in a single quarter, the Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 13, and Cardano has reached its lowest level in six years—all indicating that the market remains clearly weak.
However, the article also notes that the current drawdown depth is still shallower than the most extreme phases of 2018 and 2022, so market timing alone cannot determine whether a true bottom has been reached.
The author identifies several key observations: whether extreme fear persists, whether selling pressure is easing, whether institutional funds are returning, and whether ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader risk asset environment are improving. Based on this, the article suggests that if historical patterns continue, market recovery may occur sometime in late 2026—but this cycle may not fully replicate past trends.