ChainThink reports that on March 18, the market widely believed the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting interest rates at its meeting tomorrow at 2:00 PM was nearly zero, with no rate cuts expected in the near term. Futures pricing indicates that policymakers are not likely to consider easing until at least September, with October being more probable, and even then, only one rate cut is expected this year. CNBC summarizes the prevailing FOMC expectations as follows:
Russell Investments' Senior Investment Strategist said: "The March meeting will almost certainly hold rates steady. But any clues Powell may reveal about the future direction of rates will be crucial. Overall, the U.S. economy remains robust. However, this also means the bar for further rate cuts in the U.S. could be quite high."
Federal Reserve watchers at Bank of America noted in a report: “With the market nearly pricing out any chance of a rate cut in April, Powell’s ability to guide market expectations depends on how much his statements are perceived as reflecting the committee’s consensus rather than his personal views. Even setting aside this constraint, Powell’s task remains challenging.”
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson told CNBC that he expects the committee’s post-meeting statement to provide a “cautious” description of inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path.