BlockBeats news: On January 28, five major institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, provided outlooks on the Federal Reserve's 2026 interest rate cuts and highlighted the key focus points for tonight's rate decision as follows:
Barclays Bank
Interest rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and December).
Viewpoint: The FOMC is expected to signal that it is not in a hurry to implement further rate cuts. The committee may indicate that downside risks to employment are now balanced with upside risks to inflation.
Powell comments: He is expected to reinforce the FOMC's stance of not rushing to cut interest rates.
Bank of America
Interest rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and July).
Viewpoint: Political factors may become a focus at the January meeting. The Federal Reserve will remain firmly committed to maintaining the status quo, and the balance of risks is expected to remain unchanged.
Powell comments: The press conference may focus on political rather than policy issues. However, in terms of policy, the current market pricing could carry the risk of a dovish surprise.
Citigroup
Interest rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and September).
Viewpoint: If the next rate cut aims at policy normalization rather than responding to urgent risks, the decision-makers may seek broader consensus than in December last year, which would require more evident progress on inflation as a prerequisite.
Powell stated that he is likely to emphasize that the three recent rate cuts have helped stabilize the labor market, and that the current policy stance is appropriate for assessing its effects.
JPMorgan
Interest rate cut forecast: No rate cuts will occur in 2026.
Key point: After completing three risk-managed rate cuts previously, many FOMC members have indicated that the current time is appropriate for a pause in action.
Powell is expected to state that the current policies are sufficient to address the risks facing the Fed's dual mandate, and he will avoid discussing various political issues related to the Federal Reserve.
Wells Fargo
Interest rate cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in March and June).
Viewpoint: A strong argument is that the longer the FOMC waits to cut interest rates, the higher the economic threshold becomes for justifying further policy easing.
Powell comments: He is expected not to hint at further policy easing at the next meeting in March. He is likely to be asked questions related to the Justice Department investigation, but the response is expected to be consistent with previous statements. (Gold 10)