Fidelity Suggests Bitcoin May Enter a Supercycle Phase in 2026

• Fidelity suggests Bitcoin may enter a supercycle with longer highs and smaller dips, diverging from past halving cycles.
• Institutional ETF inflows and friendlier U.S. crypto policy are key forces altering Bitcoin’s historical price patterns.
• Government and corporate adoption, including reserves and balance sheets, adds sustained demand but introduces new risks.

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year price cycle is facing renewed scrutiny after Fidelity Investments outlined signs of a potential market shift. Analysts said institutional demand, policy changes and market maturity may alter historical patterns.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin historically peaked about 17 to 18 months after each halving event. The 2016 halving preceded a December 2017 peak near $20,000. Similarly, the 2020 halving led to a November 2021 high.

However, Fidelity researchers now point to a possible supercycle structure. They describe it as longer price highs and shallower drawdowns. Notably, they compared this structure to commodity markets during the 2000s.

Fidelity cited three drivers behind this shift. First, institutions continue allocating through exchange-traded products. Second, U.S. policy has turned more favorable toward crypto markets. Third, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from equities and precious metals.

Alongside institutional activity, government participation expanded during 2025. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. The order classified government-held Bitcoin and other digital assets as reserve assets.

Elsewhere, policy momentum continued. In September, Kyrgyzstan passed legislation establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Congress advanced a bill allowing up to 5% of foreign reserves in Bitcoin, though approval remains pending.

According to Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, competitive dynamics may drive further adoption. He said governments could feel pressure if peers integrate Bitcoin into reserve frameworks.

Corporate participation also expanded during 2025. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continued Bitcoin purchases that began in 2020. By November, more than 100 publicly traded companies reported holding digital assets.

Roughly 50 of those firms disclosed holdings exceeding one million Bitcoin collectively. Kuiper noted some companies access financing to gain exposure. He added that regulatory limits sometimes push investors toward equity proxies.

However, Fidelity noted risks remain. Corporate selling during downturns could pressure prices. Still, Fidelity researchers said market structure changes may influence how future cycles develop through 2026.